With such strong faith in the growth momentum of the global economy as it enters the second half of 2017, this point has been reached in the economic cycle where data that falls short of expectations is dismissed as an aberration.
For example, US purchasing managers' indexes were weaker than anyone surveyed by Reuters had forecast, but the market paid little attention to this. “The path is below expectations, but let’s not worry,” said the mantra.
This kind of economic Panglossianism - the best of the best of all worlds - is based on what appears to be the majority view among politicians and economists that the world is experiencing significant growth.
“Faster growth this year reflects synchronized improvement in both advanced and emerging market economies,” said Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, forecasting 2017 will be the world's fastest growth year. 2.9 percent - since 2010.
Backing up that view, central banks in the US, Eurozone and UK are leaning toward tightening, albeit with a cacophony of mixed signals about when.
Financial markets are currently pricing in a 90 percent chance of a rate hike in the Eurozone by July next year, for example, to go along with the Federal Reserve's continued upward trend.
However, there are some uncomfortable trends that will require consideration in the second half of the year.
First, there have been some signs of a decline in economic activity, while inflation remains stubbornly unconcerned with the huge monetary stimulus thrown at it for the most part.
The Citi Economic Surprise Index, which moves in tandem with poor data or underestimated expectations, has pulled back major industrial economies this year and is at negative levels not seen since 2011.
Gross domestic product in the US is currently growing, but the pace in each of the last two quarters has been slower, down to 1.4 percent in January-March.
The Atlanta Fed's report said growth would rebound in the second quarter, but as a result of stronger domestic sales, reflecting cheap money offsetting sluggish investment in equipment and inventory.
Orders for durable goods fell sharply and job growth slowed in the latest data.
In the Eurozone, the overall picture is relatively positive with a current growth rate of 1.9 percent year on year - but there are challenges, for example in Italy, the bloc's third-largest economy. And while deflation may be ending, inflation is still below target.
The unemployment rate is lower but still above 9 percent (twice as high for young people), consumer spending is down and wage growth is stubbornly slow.
Meanwhile, China avoided the slowdown that some had feared. Indeed, production in June grew the fastest in just three months.
But the official crackdown on over-indebtedness and shadow banking has been enough of a risk to economic stability to make the central bank cautious about taking further action, especially ahead of this year's CPC congress.
In Japan, the government improved its overall assessment of the economy due to rising private consumption. But the latest data shows retail sales are growing more slowly than expected, with sales of durable goods and clothing slowing.
Britain, facing the huge unknown of leaving the European Union, is leading the way, with consumer confidence falling.
Examination
None of this is to say that the global economy is not in good shape, with (non-UK) consumer and business confidence generally on the rise.
There are "mixed signals," David Folkerts-Landau, chief economist at Deutsche Bank Group, wrote to Deutsche Bank clients, but they reflect "softening momentum on the margins, but still robust."
But there is enough uncertainty for the Bank for International Settlements - the banker of central banks - to warn of risks ahead from the turning financial cycle, unmanageable household debt and weak productivity growth among others.
They are difficult to track, but a number of background checks will be carried out next week.
The definitive purchasing managers' indices and their equivalents, such as Japan's Tankan, will show whether growth in manufacturing and services is supporting expectations or succumbing to a mild slowdown.
Germany, France and the UK will also publish their latest industrial output data.
Finally, US non-farm payroll data for June will be released at the end of the week. The number of new jobs is expected to rise from May, but will still reflect a much lower pace of job creation than at the start of the year.
In addition to this data there will be conversations. A group of 20 countries meets in Berlin at the end of the week - seeking their unity with US President Donald Trump to keep things going in the second half of the year and beyond.
Yesterday the MICEX index closed the day with a black candle. The support of 2270 could not resist and the market went to its first target - 2250, from where it was able to roll back and closed, testing the broken support of 2270 from below. Today we are waiting for the level to be worked out: we continue to sell the rebound with targets of 2240, 2200 and 2175, a breakout with a retest, you can try to buy with targets 2290, 2310 and 2340. According to the breakdown, the situation is developing in favor of a decline: we completed the NDT, adjusted to it and today executed the first wave of the third, at the end of the day going into a correction in the form of wave 2 and today we can get 3 in 3 if the market will not be able to break the excitement by breaking through the 2306 mark.
The situation in the morning looks neutral:
CP fought off its resistance at 2845 and fulfilled its first target at 2805, from where it bounced up and is now approaching its first resistance at 2835, the rebound from which can be sold with targets at 2806, 2789 and 2743. In case of its breakdown, we expect continued growth with targets at 2847, 2858 and 28877.
The euro-dollar reached its support of 1.131 (here my channel went off and the real level was 1.1295, I wrote in my blog yesterday) and rebounded upward. Here the decline is most likely over and we are waiting for a new wave of growth or a large correction with the nearest targets at 1.163 and 1.169. Cancellation of the scenario - a breakdown of 1.1295 with a retest from below, which will open the way for the pair to the next target - 1.08.
Gold (the channel also disappeared here, sorry) also reached its goal and turned around. Here, too, we expect continued growth with the immediate target of 1250. Cancellation of the scenario - a breakdown of support 1166, in this case we can go to the next support - 1140 and turn around from there.
Oil did not jump up and immediately moved down, fulfilling two out of three goals and fighting off the second -70.2 signal line on the day. Here we are waiting for a correction with targets at 72.3, 72.7 and 74, after which (or in the event of a breakdown of 70) the decline should resume and even accelerate. The local target will be 69, and the main one - 63.6.
The dollar-ruble bounced off its support at 66.2 and went up, breaking through the resistance at 66.9 (67 in the morning). Today we are waiting for a test of the level from above and are buying a rebound with targets of 68.7 and 70.5. Going lower with a retest will tell us that the correction is not completed and another downward wave awaits us with targets of 66.7,66.3 and 65.6. Or that 67 is not a level at all.
By industry:
The banking sector reached its support level of 6260 (6255 in the morning) and closed with a slight rebound, which still maintains hope for renewed growth, however, in the event of a breakdown of the level (preferably with a retest). we should expect a continuation and acceleration of the decline with the nearest targets at 5960 and 5790. If the level is maintained, we again expect to enter the cluster resistance zone 6490-6510.
The oil price broke through its support at 6645 (6655 in the morning), but tried to return to it by the close. Today we are waiting for a test of the level from below and selling the rebound - most likely it’s time for a correction for the sector. We are waiting for the decline to resume with targets 6440 and 6195. Cancellation of the scenario - return above 6655 with a retest from above - in this case we can go up again with targets 6786 and 6860.
Metallurgists broke through local support 5770 and closed, testing the level from below. Today we are waiting for it to work out: we sell the rebound with targets of 5690 and 5640, we buy a breakout with the target of 5935.
Energy reached its support zone of 1680-1687 from where it slightly rolled back. Apparently, the trend ends with the KDT, which lacks another downward wave, so you should be careful with purchases and gain in the event of a breakdown of the cluster resistance of 1733 - in this case, the decline can be considered complete and wait for continued growth with targets of 1780 and 1795.
Telecoms fought all day against their support at 1710 and held it, so a resumption of growth with a target of 1766 is likely here. Cancellation of the scenario means a breakdown of support, in this case we go further down with a target of 1655.
Bottom line: almost all sectors (as well as some Western currencies and indices) are at their supports, the breakdown of which will lead to an acceleration of the decline. The exception is the oil industry, which may continue to collapse, dragging the MICEX index with it, while the rest will recover. The situation is on the verge of collapse at its peak, but if we can maintain support today, the market will have a chance to continue growing.
Yesterday, the MICEX index closed the day with a “top” - in our case, this is a consolidation figure in a continuing sideways trend. The MICEX index once again tested its immediate support of 2085 (2087 at the time of the break and in the morning), from which it rebounded upward and again moved towards its highs. Here we are waiting for continued growth. The nearest targets are 2107 and 2112, the main one is still 2135. Cancellation of the scenario - a breakout with a retest of the current support. In this case, the market will receive the first reversal signal and move towards its main supports located in the cluster zone 2071-2075.
The market situation looks moderately positive:
CP is slowly growing in its upward sideways trend with local supports at 2557 and 2553. Local targets here are still 2565 and 2573. If support at 2553 is lost, the decline in the future may intensify to levels of 2538 and 2527.
The euro-dollar fell slightly short of its first target of 1.171 and went into a rebound, where it tested the previously broken lower limit of the local up-channel 1.18 (1.1813 at the time of the breakout) from which it has so far rebounded, which, again, confirms the downward direction. Below targets are 1.172 and 1.164 in case of a breakdown. Cancellation of the scenario - a breakdown of both boundaries of the local up-channel (1.1818 and 1.186). In this case, we can assume that the pair has completed its correction from the annual highs and is ready to update them.
Gold updated its local level and reached the lower target 1281 (in the morning 1279), from where it rolled back, but was unable to break through the upper limit of the local downchannel 1288 (in the morning 1287), which so far speaks in favor of another turning point, but in the case of a move above the upper border, we receive a signal for a reversal and continued growth with local targets of 1300 and 1316.
Oil reached its local highs in the zone of 58.4-58.6, but on the eve of statistics it did not dare to pass them and hung around all day, testing in the meantime the local support of 57.8 (in the morning 57.7) from which it was able to fight off , which confirms the growth movement, but the main signal is still a consolidation above the annual high of 58.6 (not to be confused with a puncture, after which there is usually a correction or reversal). Today we are waiting for an attempt to gain a foothold above 58.6. If successful, growth in black gold will continue with targets of 59.5 and 61.5 in case of breakdown.
The dollar-ruble has rebounded from the support of 57.2, which still casts doubt on the continuation of the decline, but a breakout of the 57.5 mark (57.57 in the morning) is still a signal for continued growth. If successful, we expect continued growth with targets of 57.9 and 58.4. The rebound from resistance can be sold with targets of 57.2 and 56.8.
By industry:
The banking sector broke through its support at 5720 (5730 in the morning), however, it could not withstand the retest from above and returned higher again, testing the level from above when closing. Today we are waiting for the level to be worked out. a rebound can be bought with targets at 7620 and 7750, a breakout can be sold with targets at 7500 and 7450.
The oil market came out of its sideways trend and was able to regain one of the supports (zone 5050-5055). The sector closed, testing it from above. Today we are waiting for the level to be worked out: we buy a rebound with targets of 5120 and 5210. We sell a breakout with a retest with targets of 5030 and 5000.
Metallurgists moved up from their support 5780 (5790 in the morning). Here we expect continued growth with targets at 5890 and 5960. Cancellation of the scenario - a breakdown with a retest of the current support. In this case, the decline in the sector will continue with targets of 5740 and 5720, and the first signal for a reversal will be received.
From the opening, energy broke through its cluster support zone of 1975-1983 and even successfully tested the 1975 mark from below. But then it found the strength to return above the support zone and closed, testing the upper level from above. Here we are also waiting for the level to be worked out: we buy a rebound with the aim of testing the previously broken support of 2015, a rebound from which could lead to a new wave of decline. We sell the breakout with targets of 1960 and 1930, while receiving the main signal for the end of growth.
Telecoms continue to hang out sideways. The main support has reached 1785, where we are still waiting for the sector. Cancellation of the scenario - a breakdown and retest from above the level of 1825 - this will give a signal for continued growth with the main target for now - 1900.
Bottom line: we expect continued growth. Confirmation - a breakdown of the 2102 mark. Otherwise, the market will again test its current support, which this time may not survive.
In 2014, the CEO of the Insight ONE agency published interesting statistics on the state of the gaming industry in Russia for 2014. Statistics are based on data from Mail.ru Group, J’son & Partners, NewZoo, RBK Money, White Label Statistics, Advertising Age, VirtualGiveaway, Jupiter Communications, MTS, Euroset, Nielsen, The Esa.
According to statistics:
- 58% of Russians play games;
- the average age of the player is 30 years;
- 68% of all players are adults (over 18 years old);
- 45% of all Russian players are women;
- almost every 2nd player is a family man;
- about 89% of parents play games with their children (most often children's games);
- 77% of all players play at least 1 hour per week;
- 36% play games on their smartphones;
Online games in Russia
The structure of the online segment has changed significantly over the past 2 years - the share of social games has grown sharply. The average age of a player has also increased - 33 years. Currently, online games with a turnover of more than $1.3 billion are the most profitable segment of Internet business in Russia.
Typical player
- the average age of a player is 33 years;
- 45% of players are married;
- 13% are in a civil marriage;
- 40% of MMO players are parents;
- women usually play social games.
How many players are there in Russia
47% of Russians are active Internet users, of which 68% actively play online games.
Who plays computer games
Why players pay more
The MMO segment has the highest share of paying players among online game users. Multiplayer games are distinguished by a loyal audience that is willing to spend about 1,100 rubles on in-game payments. per month.
Mobile games in Russia
- There are more than 1.2 billion active mobile game players in the world, of which Russia accounts for about 3.2%;
- The increase in mobile Internet users in Russia over the past year was 53%;
- About 37% of people used smartphones in Russia in 2012, and in 2013 already 45%, by 2014 the figures are planned to be 56%;
- In the third quarter of 2013, smartphones accounted for 66% of the mobile phone market, currently 71%;
- In 2013, 15.2 million smartphones were sold, which is 69% higher than the previous year.