The most popular betting market in football is the outcome market. There are only three options here: W1 (win of the first team), X (draw) and W2 (win of the second team). However, football painting is not limited to just this market. The number is enough popular bets also included double outcome. In this article we will take a closer look at this market. Let's look at its features and even strategies.
What is a double outcome?
A double outcome is a bet that combines two bets from the main outcome market. There are three options in this market:
- 1X is a bet that the first team will not lose the match (will it win or will it be a draw)
- X2 is a bet that the second team will not lose the match (it will win or there will be a draw)
- 12 is a bet that the match will not be a draw (one of the teams will win).
So in a way, you even put on an express, just modified. To help you understand how the double chance market works, let's give a practical example. There is a match between Germany and Mexico. Baseline:
- Germany's victory – 1.90;
- Draw – 3.80;
- Mexico wins - 4,333.
You think the Germans will win, but you're not sure they'll do it in full time. Therefore, you must simultaneously bet on their victory or draw. But for this you still need to make calculations - what amount to bet and so on. In the schedule for the same match there is an option 1X for odds of 1.24. You just need to make one click and you will bet on both P1 and X at the same time. This is how it works.
Tricks
And yet, we will calculate bets on a simple victory for Germany and a draw in the match. That is, we will try to deliver a double outcome through the underlying markets. After doing our calculations, you will be able to understand why we did this.
So, let’s go back to the odds on the outcome market for the Germany – Mexico match:
- Germany's victory – 1.90;
- Draw – 3.80;
- Mexico wins - 4,333.
Let's say you want a total bet for 100 dollars. Now you need to calculate how much of these 100 dollars you should bet on a German victory and how much on a draw in the fight. There is one simple formula for this:
K1*S-(100- S)= K2*(100- S)- S
K1 – real odds for Germany to win
K2– real odds for a draw.
S– bet amount on Germany to win
The “real odds” are one less than what the bookmaker offers. That is, K1=0.90, K2-2.80.
0.9S-(100-S)=2.8(100-S)-S
0.9S-100+S=280-2.8S-S
So, we need to bet $66.67 on a Germany win and $33.33 on a draw. Let's calculate our potential profit:
- If the match ends in Germany winning: 0.9*66.67-33.33 (bet on a draw)= $26.67.
- If the match ends in a draw: 2.8*33.33-66.67=26.66.
As you can see, you can earn $26.66. Now let’s remember the coefficient for 1X. That's right. It was 1.24. This means that you could only win $24 with $100. You would have lost over $2.50. Still not impressed?
That's how much it is in percentage: 2,67/2,4*100=11,1%. That is, you lose more than 10% of your profit. Agree, this is not so little. This is why many players simply place bets through the main market on a double outcome. There is a rational grain in this.
Main pros and cons
The main benefit of double bets is that they give you extra insurance. In some matches you may not be sure of the outcome, and the combination option will give you a margin of safety. The second positive point is that you do not need to carry out any calculations (as we did above). All you have to do is find a bet on the double outcome market, place it, and that’s it – it’s done.
Yes, you “insure” yourself through a double outcome, but you need to understand that The odds on this market are not the most attractive. Especially when you compare them with P1, X, P2. You won’t be able to win much through such bets, and if something goes wrong, then there is a risk of losing a lot. We discussed another drawback above - Bookmakers lower odds on double outcomes, when compared with the main outcomes. Moreover, as our calculations showed, you can lose even more than 10% of your profit because of this. The numbers speak for themselves.
When is it best to use
There are some basic guidelines regarding double outcome betting that you can use to develop your own strategies. For example, we advise you to pay your attention to teams that rarely draw in their national championships. This uncompromising attitude will allow you to make a good profit. For example, London's Chelsea drew only three times in the entire 2016-2017 season in the English Premier League.. But usually the odds of 12 involving these teams are low. Therefore, it is better to pay attention to the middle peasants, who rarely play in a draw: Swansea (5 times), Crystal Palace (5). And in Germany there is Hertha, which has only drawn four times.
There is another application of the “double outcome” market - these are bets on teams that play well at home . Sometimes even not the leaders and not the strongest teams can hardly lose at their home stadium. For such teams it is better to bet 1X. In the German championship there is Cologne (only two defeats in the season) or Hoffenheim (not a single defeat in the entire season).
The key to betting on the double outcome market is to study statistics, as well as pre-match analysis. You should focus on a few leagues. This will allow you to achieve higher accuracy in forecasts and spend less time searching for information.
Results
Double outcome – interesting option rates, which has both its advantages and disadvantages. If you really want to make a profit from betting, then you also need to calculate the “true” odds of double selections. This will allow you to maximize your profits. As with any other form of betting, you can only succeed here if you invest time and effort.
Sports betting is a constant risk. Do you place a bet but can't make money? The fact is that you are taking too much risk, and unjustifiably. That is why it will not be superfluous to familiarize yourself with strategies with minimal risk loss of capital. By the way, some of them, with the right approach, are guaranteed to bring profit and allow you to gain profit, even if you are currently in the red.
Bookmakers' odds for the same outcomes differ. If you identify even a minimal difference, you can get a win with a 100% guarantee. Regardless of the outcome of the event, you will be in the black.
To understand the essence of the method, consider a simple example. For the win of player 1, the bookmaker gives a coefficient of 1.5, and for the win of player 2, the bookmaker "Betcity" set a coefficient of 5.0. He allocates 1000 rubles for the match. We bet 750 rubles on the first athlete and 250 on the second.
If player 1 wins, the payout is 1125 rubles, and if player 2, the winnings will be 1250 rubles. Net profit – 125 or 250 rubles. And it doesn’t matter how the fight ends - the main thing is that it ends.
Opportunities for such bets arise due to the fact that all bookmakers are not able to provide the same quotes, especially at the same time. You need to make money from this. The main thing is to place bets in different offices.
Underdog wins in the quarter
The strategy is designed for basketball. It is based on statistical indicators. The fact is that 98% of basketball matches do not end with the favorite winning all quarters. Statistics are based on observations, because no one has conducted a detailed study, but this is not a reason to refuse possible earnings.
We find a Live match that has just started. We bet on the underdog to win in the first quarter. If the bet fails, we find another game. In case of defeat, he places a similar bet in the second quarter, but increases the amount of the initial bet. And so on until we win.
For example, if you bet 100 rubles and lost it, then bet not 200, but a little more. So that when we place a bet, we not only return the lost hundred, but also remain in the black.
There are very few basketball matches in which the favorite wins all periods - you can check this yourself by opening the results game day almost any tournament. To increase your chances of success, filter out events where the difference in odds is too large.
The strategy is easily modified. For example, bet not on the outsider, but on the favorite. You can bet on total or even/odd. Again, matches where the total would be more or only even in all quarters, minimal amount. Take advantage of it!)
Dogon
The idea is that you are betting on a certain outcome. If the forecast turns out to be wrong, place a bet, doubling or even tripling the amount (depending on the odds).
The main thing is to choose the right fights and outcomes with high chances of success. Don't bet on anything. Consider every option, because you are risking your own money. Unfortunately, in the event of a prolonged black streak, from which even professionals are not insured, there is a risk of losing everything game bank, so stock up on an amount that is enough for 10-12 transactions. You can find out more about what catch-up is.
Forks
The essence of the strategy is that you should find the most profitable odds for each outcome of one event. By correctly distributing the allotted amount for the bet, regardless of the outcome of the game, you will remain in the black.
The difficulty lies in finding forks, although there are special programs for this. You can.
The profit from one arbitrage situation is 1-3%, sometimes more, but it is unlikely that you will be able to regularly find forks with higher profitability. This win-win strategy is advisable to use if you have big bank. Then 1-3% seems to be not enough, but if it is 1-3% of a bank of 100 thousand rubles, then it’s not bad at all.
An example of a surebet strategy in a football match. Barcelona and Real Madrid are playing. In BC "Leon" odds. on P1 is 2.3, in the “Betting League” on a draw – 3.3, and the odds. on P2 in “1xBet” is 3.97.
For bets, for example, we allocate 1000 rubles. On P1 we put 439.31 with odds. 2.3, for a draw – 306.18 per bet. 3.3 and 254.51 on P2 with coefficient. 3.97. The results will be as follows:
- if Barcelona wins (P1): 439.31 x 2.3 = 1010.41 rubles;
- if there is a draw (X): 306.18 x 3.3 = 1010.39 rubles;
- in case of Real Madrid winning (W2): 254.51 x 3.97 = 1010.40 rubles.
No matter how El Clasico ends, our profit will be a little more than 10 rubles. Pennies, but if as rates increase, income also increases.
Everything is so simple only in theory. The strategy has many nuances, pitfalls and features, so be sure to read the most detailed material about sure bets at this link.
First goal with foot
A football strategy involves betting that the first goal will be scored with a kick. In 75% of matches, the first goal is scored with the foot, and not with the head, chest or other part of the body.
1) How to make a profit at a distance? The importance of the concept of value.
Betting is an investment. Someone trades on the stock exchange, someone makes a deposit in a bank, and someone has a stable profit from sports betting. However, you need to treat this as an investment. The only way to beat the bookmaker is long distance(to make a systematic profit, and not to double the bank once and then lose everything) in betting is to find events that are underestimated by the bookmaker.
The whole point of betting is to assess the probability of events. You need to find matches in which your probability estimate exceeds the bookmaker's estimate. This is VALUE. The bookmaker's estimate is included in the odds.
Example: let’s say the bookmaker’s odds for the outcome of Zenit-Spartak TB2.5 are 2.0 (i.e., the probability of breaking the total = 1 / 2.0 = 50% - without taking into account the bookmaker’s margin). You think the probability is at least 60%. Those. a fair odds should be 1/0.6 = 1.67. Value is obvious. If we take a distance of 1000 similar matches, we will get 400 losses and 600 wins at odds of 2.0. Those. 1200 – 1000 = 200. Or 20% of net profit.
2 ) Why is 60% cross-country ability already cool? Isn't that enough?..
Are you promised a monthly (or even daily) doubling of the bank? Send them to the forest. Look a little further than your nose. Yes, you can be given 3-4 visiting forecasts in a row. But can they act without error all the time? Will they make it at least a few months plus? No one sees the future, and no one predicts 100%, or even 80% of events. You can guess 8 out of 10, you can get a series of 15 positive outcomes (and I did), but it’s almost impossible to guess 800 out of 1000 and win all the time. We are, of course, talking about normal odds (1.8 or more), and not about 1.01.
60% pass rate with an average odds of 1.9 gives 14% net profit. 14% monthly cumulative total is 482% per year. Not bad, right? However, we still need to reach this 60% and 1.9. You need to look at a distance of at least 100 forecasts (and reliably from 500 or more).
3) Here: are there fixed matches?
Yes, fixed matches exist. But no one will sell them to you. This information is worth huge money and is intended for a narrow circle of people. All the people who sell “negotiables” for 100 rubles look funny. If you know the outcome of the match 100%, charge a million and go to Bali. Funny picture to the point: 
4) Error “hit”. What is a sagging coefficient?
Never bet on odds of 1.2 – 1.3. They are absolutely not profitable. To return one bet you need to place 4. Moreover, the probability that they will enter all at once is much less than expected. The sagging odds are due to the skewed line. Many people bet on the same event, and as a result, the bookmaker adjusts the line towards the market. Let’s say that initially the odds for TB2.5 in the Manchester United – Liverpool match were 1.8. But people bet a lot on TB, and as a result the odds drop to 1.55. This odds are no longer profitable (remember about value?). However, many still continue to bet - this strategy is wrong. Either have time to bet at the normal odds, or wait for the line to straighten in live, or refrain from betting altogether. A systematic bet on a sagging odds leads to bankruptcy.
5) Why is it profitable to bet on unpopular leagues? Why do most people lose their money at the World Cup, Champions League, League of Legends, Premier League?
It's simple. In unpopular leagues, it is much more common to find “value” odds (that is, with value). Firstly, bookmakers often set incorrect lines for matches in the lower leagues. There are slightly lower limits, but you can definitely throw in 5-10 thousand. Often these values exceed 30 thousand, depending on the league. Secondly, there is no mass thoughtless loading of events.
As for the top champions, the best bookmaker analysts work on the matches, so finding a value odds is much more difficult. In addition, there is a whole cohort of people who bet on favorites. They know the Real Madrid brand - they buy Real for 1.2, regardless of the situation, they load negative handicaps. By the way, that’s why it’s more profitable to bet on underdogs and positive odds at a distance. However, you need to competently find such matches. This trend is clearly visible in the final matches.
6) Why do 90% of people give money to the bookmaker?
Because they don’t know what bank roll management is. This concept comes from poker, which in turn came from financial management. It is better to have 10% stable - this gives more than 200% net per annum. Than 150% in a month, and then drain everything over the next two. That is why it is worth limiting the amount of a single bet. Only you decide how much percentage of the bank you take - depending on how excited you are. If after 5 losses in a row you start to panic and win back, you should bet 1-2% of the bank. If you react adequately to losses – 5%. The maximum limit is 10%, but you should bet this amount only if you are extremely confident and there are good reasons to do so (it happens 1-2 times a month, and then not every month).
Accordingly, you can forget about what VA-BANK is. I know many stories of how people then get into loans and ruin their lives.
7) Did I lose?
Yes. There is no person who has not had a single unsuccessful period. If he says otherwise, believe me, he is a charlatan. Everyone experiences so-called lose streaks - a series of defeats. I won’t tell you the longest chain of losses, but there have been 30% monthly drawdowns in my more than 7-year history. However, it also happened that more than 100% of the profit came out per month.
8) How much should I bet according to my forecasts?
If you read the last paragraph carefully, I think you understand. Maximum 5% of the bank. You make the decision about the bet, and take responsibility.
9) Are express trains profitable?
An express bet with odds of 200 looks cool, but only a few out of millions collect it. Express bets are generally unprofitable at a distance and should be used extremely rarely. And a maximum of 2-3 events. The disadvantage is that the probabilities are multiplied. Let's say you give 60% to each of the matches that they will win. So, the probability that they will enter at the same time is only 36%. Are you ready to take that risk?
10) Are live bets profitable?
I do not recommend getting into live betting on your own. Most lose when playing live, because... It is more difficult to control your emotions here. An instant loss triggers the mechanism that you need to win back. Only with vast experience behind you can you turn to live. I see only 3 reasons why this tool is needed.
1. Make a cover bet if you see that events are developing completely differently than expected.
2. Bet on TB after 15 minutes of a football match. Often during this period, teams are just taking a closer look at each other, getting into the match, and less than 10% of all goals are scored in the first 15 minutes. At the same time, the odds will naturally increase.
3. Live bet on the NBA. Often the game takes place “swinging” - with a change of leaders. You can take the desired handicap at a higher odds at some points in the match.
11) Which bookmakers are the best?
In the CIS space I think the best office BC Marathon. Mastodons of the betting business: pinnacle and sbobet. Also excellent offices: William Hill, bet365. I like 1xbet a little less.
There is no single most profitable strategy. I believe that flat is one of the best. This is either a fixed amount of bets all the time, or a % of the current/starting bank.
13) How much time do I devote to betting per day?
On average 6-8 hours. Depending on the line.
14) Why do I need all this?
You can make money by betting. I would like those who are now losing to be able to improve the situation. If you wish, you can always find mutually beneficial options if you are interested in something more than a blog.
15) Be continued...
P.S. Subscribe to the blog and group on VK ->
Many players place bets exclusively on a victory or draw of a particular team and do not particularly consider the bookmaker’s line. However, in the future, players have a need to hedge their bets and they come across this type of bet as “double chance” or, in other words, “double outcome”. Let's look at what it is this type rates and give an example.
What is double chance in betting?
Double chance in betting - this is a bet in a bookmaker's office, in which the player must choose two out of three possible outcomes (win, draw, defeat). A bet on a double outcome is valid only for regular time (in football 90 minutes, in hockey 60). Thus, overtime or extra time are not included in these types of bets. It is logical that double chance bets can only be placed in those sports where 3 outcomes are possible. For example, such bets are possible in hockey and football, but are not available in basketball or tennis.
Example of a double chance bet
Register and get a bonusMatch "Real Madrid - Bayern". In the bookmaker's line, there is a "double chance" bet on Soccer game will look like this:
Double chance (outcome) designations:
- 1X– victory of the first team or a draw (based on the example above, Real Madrid must not lose the match).
- 12 – victory of one of the teams (based on the example above, the match should not be a draw, i.e. Bayern or Real Madrid should win).
- X2– a draw or victory for the second team (based on the example above, Bayern must not lose the match).
Thus, if you bet on a double chance 1X - 1000 rubles, if the team from Madrid does not lose, the player will receive 1400 rubles back from the bookmaker. Having placed a bet on a double outcome of 12 -1000 rubles and Real or Bayern wins, the player will receive 1280 rubles. If the player chooses to bet on a double chance of 2X - 1000 rubles and Bayern does not lose, then the bookmaker will pay the player 1720 rubles for such a bet.
A bet on a double outcome is considered safe and when players have doubts about the outcome of a match in football or hockey, many players prefer to choose a double chance, since the probability of winning the bet increases.
Double outcome bets have always been and remain in demand among betting players. This type of bet is considered one of the most likely positions in the line of outcomes. The player bets on two out of three possible final outcomes in a confrontation between two teams or single opponents.
A bet on 1X means that the bet is considered won if the match ends in a victory for the home team or a draw. A forecast of 12 implies a victory for one of the sides, but excludes any draw. If you bet on X2, the bet will be considered won if the hosts do not win the match.
For these types of bets, bookmakers often underestimate the odds. This happens due to the fact that they involve events with a high probability of their coincidence. For example, in the match Barcelona - Tenerife, the hosts are already considered the clear favorite. The odds for their victory will be no more than 1.2. The probability that Tenerife will win is close to zero. Therefore, for a 1X bet, the offices will give meager odds - about 1.02.
On the other hand, the coefficient for the other outcome of this line 12 will be much higher. Barcelona’s victory is already guessed, but a draw or defeat is unlikely. And yet the bet will be won if the hosts or guests win. As a rule, bookmakers give slightly higher odds for the outcome of 12 than for 1X or X2 in favor of the favorite. IN in this example the coefficient for 12 will be about 1.2.
It is worth understanding that the amount of winnings directly depends on the odds. Net profit is the result of the difference between the bet amount and the total winnings.
Let's look at an example:
The player bet on the 1X outcome in the Everton – Tottenham match, that is, on the home team winning or drawing. The bet amount is 2000 rubles. The 1X coefficient will be equal to 1.7. If the match ends in a victory for Everton or a draw, the winning amount will be 3,400 rubles (2,000 rubles * 1.7). Then the net profit will be: 3400 - 2000 = 1400 rubles.
It should be noted that in bets on a double outcome, the final score of the match does not matter.