One of the most important indicators for the country’s monetary policy is the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Its level today determines not only the profitability of deposits placed with the regulator by credit institutions, but also the overpayment for borrowed funds received from it. Accordingly, the cost of banking services, in the form of loans and deposits, is actually tied to this indicator. It also regulates penalties assessed by tax authorities and compensation received by citizens. For example, if payment is not made on time employees. That is, the size of the Central Bank’s key rate today, and in particular for 2018, is important for many industries. Therefore, below is a table with an indicator of this parameter, which allows us to evaluate its dynamics.
Table - the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for today (2018) and its changes over the past 5 years
The concept of a key rate was introduced by the regulator not so long ago - on September 13, 2013. Therefore, the maximum period for which it is possible to provide statistical data is 5 years. Additionally, it is worth noting that from the first day of 2016 the refinancing rate was equalized to it.
| Date of the meeting of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation |
Decision |
Set value (% per annum) |
|---|---|---|
| 12/14/2018 | Promote | 7.75 (current level) |
| 09/14/2018 | Promote | 7,50 |
| 03/23/2018 |
Downgrade |
7,25 |
| 02/09/2018 |
Downgrade |
7,50 |
| 12/15/2017 |
Downgrade |
7,75 |
| October 27, 2017 |
Downgrade |
8,25 |
| 09/15/2017 |
Downgrade |
8,50 |
| 06/16/2017 |
Downgrade |
9,00 |
| 04/28/2017 |
Downgrade |
9,25 |
| 03/24/2017 |
Downgrade |
9,75 |
| 09/16/2016 |
Downgrade |
10,00 |
| 06/10/2016 |
Downgrade |
10,50 |
| 07/31/2015 | Downgrade | 11,00 |
| 06/15/2015 | Downgrade | 11,50 |
| 04/30/2015 | Downgrade | 12,50 |
| 03/13/2015 | Downgrade | 14,00 |
| 01/30/2015 | Downgrade | 15,00 |
| 12/16/2014 | Increase | 17,00 |
| 12/11/2014 | Increase | 10,50 |
| 05.11.2014 | Increase | 9,50 |
| 07/25/2014 | Increase | 8,00 |
| 04/25/2014 | Increase | 7,50 |
| 03/03/2014 | Increase | 7,00 |
| 09/13/2013 | Install | 5,50 |
A significant increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dates back to the end of 2014. As an emergency, at an extraordinary meeting of the Board of Directors, it was immediately increased by 6.5 percentage points. – up to 17% per annum. Even the overall systematic increase in the parameter under consideration over the previous 15 months was not so significant - by 5% per annum over 4 meetings. After this, there is a gradual decrease in the key rate - through 15 decisions over almost 4 years by 9.75% per annum. This trend lasted until mid-September of this year. On September 14, 2018, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation decided to increase the key rate by 0.25% per annum. Thus, it was increased for the first time in almost 4 years.
The forecast for the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation for 2018, given by our portal, has come true. True, pessimistic: “an increase of 0.25% per annum.” It is worth noting that in the current 2018 there will be no more changes in the key rate. That is, it will remain at 7.75% until the end of the year.
Meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on the key rate 2018 – schedule
Changing the parameter under consideration is within the competence of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank Russian Federation. Its meeting is held according to a clearly approved schedule. It is prepared in advance. For example, for the current year 2018 it was approved and published on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on September 27, 2017. In accordance with it, meetings will be held or have already taken place on the following days:
- 02/09/2018 (rate reduced by 0.25% per annum);
- 03/23/2018 (rate reduced by 0.25% per annum);
- 04/27/2018 (rate remained at the same level);
- 06/15/2018 (rate remained at the same level);
- 07/27/2018 (rate remained at the same level);
- 09/14/2018 (rate increased by 0.25% per annum);
- 10/26/2018 (the rate remained at the same level);
- 12/14/2018 (rate increased by 0.25% per annum).
All scheduled meetings that were scheduled for 2018 took place. It is worth noting that meetings of the Board of Directors are held mainly on Fridays. Scheduled for 13:30 Moscow time. Respectively, new level the key rate, if it has been changed, comes into force on the first working day after the meeting. For example, this year both decreases did not fall on February 9 and March 23, but on Mondays following these dates - on February 12 and March 26, respectively. The situation is identical with the increase in the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation from September 17, 2018, which was decided on September 14 of this year.
What affects the key rate of the Bank of Russia
During the meeting it is considered great amount micro and macroeconomic indicators. Starting from the rate of change in consumer prices and ending with possible changes in tax legislation. If we determine the main general directions, then there are four of them:
- Inflation dynamics;
- Monetary conditions (attractiveness and demand for lending, deposits, etc.);
- Economic activity (citizens, enterprises);
- Inflation risks (forecast of possible changes in the inflation level).
Thus, the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation actually reflects the economic state of the country as a whole today. Accordingly, it takes into account a huge number of different indicators.
When analyzing the stock and foreign exchange markets, investors often come across concepts such as “key rate” or “refinancing rate.” The question itself is very broad and requires understanding. basic concepts in economics, which a private investor should take into account when planning his portfolio and his behavior in the market. In this article I will tell you:
- How interest rates of foreign financial regulators were regulated in the past and are currently regulated;
- What is the difference between the refinancing rate and the key rate of the Central Bank of Russia;
- What factors influence the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation;
- What should an investor take into account when it comes to regulating the Central Bank rate?
The influence of the rates of global financial regulators
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The rate of Central banks has always served as the most important tool for the influence of financial authorities on the economic situation. As for the regulators of the largest countries, the size of their key rate has such an impact on the global financial market as a whole that it is difficult to overestimate. The most influential regulators in this sense: the US Federal Reserve System (FRS), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan. Any investor knows the intensity of discussions among financial analysts as the next Fed meeting approaches (the last one took place on March 15, 2017). Although the main reason for the decision is declared to be only the number of applications for unemployment benefits, the volume of cheap liquidity, as well as the total face value of American debt securities, is so great that expectations (not even the decision itself) on the Fed rate can turn world financial markets in one direction or another. side.
Central banks also resort to changing the key rate in crisis situations, when giant financial holes of banks and corporations are “filled” with cheap liquidity. This is what the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England did in 2008-2009, and the Bank of Japan in the early 1990s. The ECB is still forced to continue the policy of abnormally low (in some cases negative) interest rates for.
Key rate and refinancing rate: what are the differences
But let’s return to the Russian market and first let’s figure out what historically was the difference between the two types of Central Bank rates in Russia. The refinancing rate dates back to 1992, when the Central Bank first established the so-called discount rate, which was used to calculate the marginal cost of liquidity provided to commercial banks in annual terms. Later it was called the refinancing rate. Special meaning This instrument was acquired during the 1998 crisis, when the Central Bank of the Russian Federation actively used rate increases to create benchmarks for the cost of government funds. This increased their investment attractiveness and reduced the enormous pressure on the foreign exchange market, when the dollar exchange rate increased two and a half times in a few months. The refinancing rate also traditionally served to determine the amount of personal income tax on bank deposits, fines and penalties, and was taken into account for calculating corporate income tax. The dynamics of the refinancing rate can be presented in the form of a graph and table.
| Validity | Bet value |
| 01.01.1992 — 09.04.1992 | 20% |
| 30.03.1993 — 01.06.1993 | 100% |
| 15.10.1993 — 28.04.1994 | 210% |
| 06.11.1997 — 10.11.1997 | 21% |
| 27.05.1998 — 28.06.1998 | 150% |
| 19.06.2007 — 03.02.2008 | 10% |
| 14.09.2012 — 31.12.2015 | 8.25% |
| 01.01.2016 | Equated to key |
As you can see, the selected data in the table perfectly illustrates the state of the country’s economy and the Central Bank’s response to dramatic events in the form of tightening monetary policy. The rate change resembles a swing and directly correlates with the level of inflation, cost of loans, dollar exchange rate, outflow/inflow of capital, financial well-being real business and investment climate.
Switch to key rate
In the process of improving the mechanisms of influence on the liquidity market, in September 2013 the Central Bank introduced the concept of the key rate, and from January 1, 2016, equated the value of the refinancing rate to it. This created a more flexible monetary policy instrument that allows for adequate inflation targeting, which is the main function of the Central Bank.
The key rate is determined as the median cost of providing or withdrawing liquidity by the Central Bank at repo auctions ( from EnglishRepurchaseagreement, purchase/sale transaction with an obligation to resell/repurchase), with a horizon of up to seven days. The corridor of this median can be no more than two percentage points.
The subject of purchase and sale at an auction are securities with an obligation to resell (purchase) at a price specified in the repurchase agreement. Thus, a repo transaction acts as an indirect mechanism for short-term loans against bills, bills, and depository receipts. Such an instrument reduces the risks of the Central Bank, since for the duration of the loan, the securities become the property of the lender. At the same time, repo transactions bring the Central Bank a good income due to the difference in the purchase and sale prices. Defining this market way The volume of money supply, the Central Bank influences several economic parameters at once:
- Bank liquidity level;
- The volume of money supply in the country's economy;
- Inflation rate;
- Economic growth rate.
Lower or hold?
Key rate, like the refinancing rate, affects bank lending interest rates. It is not surprising that the Ministry economic development, interested not in controlling inflation, but in economic growth indicators, has traditionally acted as an antagonist of the Central Bank. The agency usually actively lobbies for a reduction in the key rate, citing the needs of the real sector of the economy for affordable loans. Outwardly, this argument seems fair: who would object to successful development domestic business.
However, from the point of view of maintaining balance in the foreign exchange market, the reduction of the key rate should be extremely balanced and cautious. In addition, rising inflation, which will be stimulated by cheap money, will depreciate the achievements of economic growth, and Russians are unlikely to be happy about the sharp rise in prices of goods in stores during the pre-election year. I would say that on this moment The Central Bank successfully defends its position and pursues a conservative monetary policy. The gradual decrease in the key rate in March 2017 from 10% to 9.75% only confirms this.
It is important to understand that the Central Bank rate does not determine 100% the cost of lending. In this indicator, other factors have no less weight. This is a shortage of “quality” borrowers, and non-repayment of borrowed funds, as well as administrative costs associated with the introduction of increased capital adequacy standards and other regulatory measures. Therefore, reducing the key rate carries risks sharp growth the dollar exchange rate and the acceleration of inflation will not necessarily lead to the desired reduction in the cost of loans for business and the population.
Let me give you an example. If a regular loan for a small business costs 22% per annum, then reducing the key rate to 6% (as some economists suggest) does not automatically reduce the loan rate to 18%. The cost includes mandatory reserves for overdue payments, administrative costs for collecting them, the cost of personnel, which will become more expensive due to inflation, and other costs. Net banking margin rarely exceeds 3%. I suggest you look at the chart for an illustration of how the size of the key rate and the dollar exchange rate are related to each other.
Carry Trade in Russia
There is another factor in the influence of the key rate on the economy. important aspect. I'm talking about the attractiveness of the Russian financial market for foreign investment funds. They have hundreds of billions of dollars on their balance sheets and choose to invest their portfolios in countries with high banking rates. Such operations are called Carry Trade ( literally - to trade) and are based on the significant difference between the low interest rate of borrowed funds to fund the investment and the market rate of the country where the investment is made.
Thus, in the markets of the European Union, Japan and Switzerland, the cost of borrowing is close to zero. The choice of investors is usually made between countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Egypt, and South Africa. Russia is on the same list, since the difference with interest rates, for example, in the USA is about 8%. China as an object of such investments in in this case we are not considering it, since there are huge direct (not portfolio) investments in the manufacturing sector, and the rate of the People's Bank is not interesting to speculators: it varies from 1.5% for deposits to 4% for loans.
Portfolio investors who come to the Russian market for the sake of speculation on Carry Trade cannot be considered as reliable and long-term financial partners. Russian economic history knows many examples when tens of billions of dollars left the country almost instantly with a decrease in profitability, which no longer compensates. This is the danger for the profit of a private investor who has made a long-term bet on ruble assets and has not sufficiently taken his risks.
Conclusion
For an ordinary private investor, information about the dynamics of the Central Bank key rate, in addition to the general news background, has a direct practical significance. The simplest examples are an increase in bond yields (including ) as the rate decreases, as well as the inevitable consequences of changes in the Central Bank rate for foreign exchange market, where a rate reduction provokes demand for dollar liquidity, which is becoming more expensive relative to the ruble.
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Profit to everyone!
Knowing the size of the key rate is necessary for various purposes of an existing business. The value is periodically revised by the authorized body. Therefore, it makes sense to always look at the reference table of values and check whether the size has been updated. It can change either down or up. This table and another useful information on the topic you will find in our article.
Who sets the key rate in Russia
Approval of the key rate is the prerogative of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. It is this financial institution that determines the specific value and the period during which it is valid.
When forming an indicator, bank specialists are guided by many inputs. The main ones are inflation over the past period and economic activity in the country.
The term “key rate” was introduced in our country in 2013 during one of the most important periods of banking reform.
What else do you need a bet for?
It lends to commercial banks for a period of one week. And for the same period he takes funds from them on deposit. As a result, it affects the interest rates of all bank loan products. And ultimately - on the level of inflation (information from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated September 13, 2013).
The key rate at which the Bank of Russia also issues loans to commercial banks (Article 40 Federal Law dated July 10, 2002 No. 86-FZ), apply:
- in tax legislation when calculating penalties for taxes and interest;
- in civil law when calculating interest on obligations;
- when calculating compensation for late payment of wages (labor relations).
What is the key rate of the Central Bank set for today in 2019
Today's rate level is 7.75%. This value is valid in 2019
It is convenient to track all reports on meetings of the country’s main bankers on the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, where all press releases about decisions of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia are published first.
Central Bank rates: table
The table we provide contains all key rate indicators for the period from 2016 to the present day. Let us remind you that January 1, 2016 is an important milestone because from this date the refinancing rate is equal to the key one.
The last value given in the table, as we said above, is valid until the next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia. At such a meeting, it is decided whether to leave the percentage at the same level or adjust it in one direction or another depending on the economic situation in the country.
The role of the key rate in the economy
The key rate is a kind of beacon or, better said, an indicator of monetary policy today in our country. This is the maximum at which the Central Bank provides loans to commercial banks. And at the same time, this is the minimum at which the Central Bank places money from commercial banks for a week.
This means that no person - neither a physicist nor a lawyer - can get a loan cheaper than what a specific commercial bank initially received for itself. That is, the interest rate on the loan for the final participant in the existing monetary chain will not be lower than it.
The same goes for deposits. Only the logic is reverse. Commercial banks do not open deposits for their clients (physicians or lawyers) at an interest rate higher than the current one.
Significance of the indicator for business
The key rate directly affects development entrepreneurial activity, since it determines the price of loans. Hence, borrowed funds either become cheaper for business. Or, on the contrary, they become more expensive, depending on the current level of the indicator. If credit funds become cheaper, the business climate becomes more favorable. Then business expansion and investment growth are possible.
Let us list three areas where the rate is involved in a number of calculations. You will find individual examples of using the indicator in calculations at the end of the article. So:
- liability for obligations arising from civil contracts (it is to the state rate that counterparties - parties to contracts - usually link the calculation of sanctions (fine, penalty) for a transaction);
- salary calculations (in case of delay in payments, compensation for delay is calculated using the rate);
- taxes. This block is the most relevant for accountants today and always. Let's look at it in more detail.
Key rate and taxes
The key rate is directly involved in calculating penalties for taxes and contributions. Within the first 30 days of delay, penalties are calculated as 1/300 of the rate for each day of delay. Starting from the 31st calendar day of delay, the fee for the slowness of the taxpayer (tax agent) is twice as high.
The calculation is based on 1/150 of the key rate for each day of delay. This “double” rule appeared on September 30, 2017 (Article 75 of the Tax Code). Therefore, if your delay is significant (over 30 days), the calculation becomes more complicated - you will need to perform more actions to calculate the required result.
It is also needed to calculate the amount of material benefits under personal income tax. A benefit arises if a company issues interest-free loans to its employees or loans at low interest, the amount of which is less than 2/3 of it. It is clear that in such a situation the employee saves on interest, that is, receives material benefits. The company must withhold personal income tax on the difference increased rate- 35% (clause 2 of article 224 of the Tax Code). For non-residents - the rate is 30%.
Material benefit is determined on the last day of the month (subclause 7, clause 1, article 223 of the Tax Code). And for the calculation they take the rate valid for that particular day. There is no need to find out when the loan was issued or returned (letter of the Ministry of Finance dated March 18, 2016 No. 03-04-07/15279).
Example of calculating financial benefits
E.I. Mironov works at Koleso LLC as a freight forwarder with a salary of 40,000 rubles. per month. Salaries for the second half of the month are paid to employees on the 5th of the next month. On November 30, 2017, an employee received an interest-free loan for 30 days in the amount of RUB 50,000. Mironov fully repaid the loan on December 29, 2017.
The date of receipt of income is December 31. The rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on this date is 7.75%. The total amount of material benefit is 205.25 rubles. (RUB 50,000 × 7.75% × 2/3: 365 days × 29 days), where 365 days is the number of days in 2017, and 29 days is the number of days the loan was used. The amount of personal income tax on material benefits was 86 rubles. (RUB 205.25 × 35%).
The company issued salaries for December on December 29. At this point, income from material benefits has not yet appeared. This means that tax must be withheld when paying the advance in January 2018.
Example of calculating tax penalties
By October 25 inclusive, the company submitted its VAT return for the third quarter of 2017 and transferred the required 1/3 of the tax to the budget. On November 16, the accountant discovered that she had incorrectly calculated the tax base. As a result, the amount of VAT payable was underestimated by 360,000 rubles. On the same day (November 16), the accountant paid off the arrears to the budget.
Along with the arrears, penalties were paid to the budget, which the accountant calculated for the period from October 26 to November 15 (21 days). During this period the rate was:
- 8.5% – from September 18;
- 8.25% – from October 30.
The amount of penalties to be paid is 2091 rubles. [(RUB 360,000 × 8.5% x 1/300 × 4 days) + (RUB 360,000 × 8.25% x 1/300 × 17 days)].
The key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in 2018 was set for the period from December 17, 2018 to February 10 (message from the official website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation).
What is the key rate of the Central Bank set for today?
Key rate for today is 7.75%. This percentage will be valid at least until February 10 inclusive. By this time, the Board of Directors of the Bank of the Russian Federation will make a decision based on the results of the next meeting on the issue of the rate.
The concept of a key rate was introduced in Russia in 2013. This time marked one of the main stages of banking reform.
The refinancing rate changes frequently. Subscribe for changes on the Simplified magazine website, and on the day the rate is updated we will notify you about it.
The Central Bank rates today are in the table (2018)
In the table below you will find the key rate indicators from 2016 to the present day.
|
Period |
Set percentage |
|---|---|
| From December 17, 2018 to February 10 | 7,75 |
| From September 17, 2018 to December 16, 2018 | 7,5 |
| From March 26 to September 16, 2018 | 7,25 |
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What does it mean for the economy?
The key rate determines the state of monetary policy in our country. This is the maximum percentage at which the Central Bank lends to commercial banks for a weekly period. And at the same time, this is the minimum interest rate at which the Central Bank places funds for the same period. cash commercial banks.
What does this mean for everyone? credit system Russia? This means that no individual or legal entity will be able to get a loan cheaper than the commercial bank itself gets the loan, that is, the interest on the loan will never be lower than the key rate.
The same goes for deposits. No commercial bank will open a deposit to an individual or legal entity at a percentage lower than the current key rate.
Implications for business
The key rate itself, namely its reduction, can influence the development of entrepreneurial activity due to cheap borrowed funds, which means the emergence of new opportunities for investment and business expansion.
A reference to the Central Bank rate can be found in the Civil and Tax Codes. Often it is this that influences the amount of penalties for obligations to counterparties or tax authorities. There are situations when the rate also takes part in determining the tax base for calculating income tax or personal income tax, for example.
Liability calculations under Article 395 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, as well as all regulations, are directly linked to the key rate.
Who sets the rate in Russia?
What rate will be in effect for a certain period is determined by the Central Bank. When forming a value, they are guided by many indicators. But the main ones are inflation over the past period, economic activity, etc.
From 01/01/2016, the value of the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is equal to the value of the key rate of the Bank of Russia on the corresponding date. From 01/01/2016 independent meaning refinancing rates are not set and are not shown on the Bank of Russia website.Refinancing rate / Key rate / of the Bank of Russia for today, i.e. from December 17, 2018, is 7.75%. The next Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, held on February 8, 2019, decided to maintain the key rate at 7.75% per annum. This key rate (7.75%) will remain in effect until March 22, 2019.
And since after December 31, 2015, the value of the refinancing rate corresponds to the key rate and is not set separately by the Bank of Russia, then starting from December 17, 2018, the refinancing rate is also 7.75%.
The decision taken is proactive in nature and is aimed at limiting inflation risks that remain elevated level, especially in the short term. Uncertainty remains regarding further development external conditions, as well as the reaction of prices and inflation expectations to the upcoming VAT increase. Raising the key rate will help prevent inflation from becoming stable at a level significantly higher than the Bank of Russia’s target.
Taking into account decision taken The Bank of Russia forecasts annual inflation in the range of 5.0–5.5% at the end of 2019 with a return to 4% in 2020.
The previous key rate of the Bank of Russia was in effect from September 17, 2018 to December 16, 2018 and was 7.50%, i.e. its validity period was three months.
The previous unofficial refinancing rate was also in effect from September 17, 2018 to December 16, 2018 and corresponded to the key rate for this period (7.50% per annum).
Last officially established The Bank of Russia refinancing rate was in effect from September 14, 2012 to December 31, 2015 and amounted to 8.25% per annum.
The transition to the key rate was made by the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, which is set out in the Directive of the Bank of Russia dated December 11, 2015 No. 3894-U “On the refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia and the key rate of the Bank of Russia”).
A from January 1, 2016, even the reference announcement of the refinancing rate by the Bank of Russia is no longer carried out.
Refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation at the end of 2018 and the beginning of 2019
On February 8, 2019, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia decided to maintain the key rate at 7.75% per annum. The refinancing rate (unofficial) will also be 7.75% per annum.When deciding to maintain the key rate/refinancing rate at 7.75%, the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia proceeded from the following:
Inflation dynamics. Annual inflation in January 2019 corresponded to the lower limit of the Bank of Russia’s expectations. In January, the annual growth rate of consumer prices increased to 5.0% (from 4.3% in December 2018). The contribution of the VAT increase to the annual growth rate of consumer prices in January was moderate. The full impact of VAT on inflation can be assessed no earlier than April of this year. Significant role the increase in inflation in January was due to the increase in the growth rate of prices for foodstuffs to 5.5% (from 4.7% in December 2018). The acceleration of food inflation is largely of a recovery nature after its significant decline in the second half of 2017 - the first half of 2018. In addition, price adjustments to the weakening of the ruble that occurred in the second half of 2018 are being completed. Prices for non-food goods and services over the past 12 months have increased less than in the food market.In January, enterprises' price expectations increased due to the earlier weakening of the ruble and an increase in VAT. The population's inflation expectations increased slightly.
According to the forecast of the Bank of Russia, under the influence of the VAT increase and the weakening of the ruble that occurred in 2018, annual inflation will temporarily accelerate, reaching a maximum in the first half of 2019, and will amount to 5.0–5.5% at the end of 2019. The quarterly growth rate of consumer prices in annual terms will slow down to 4% in the second half of 2019. Annual inflation will return to 4% in the first half of 2020, when the effects of the weakening of the ruble and the VAT increase will be exhausted.
Monetary conditions. Since the previous meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, monetary conditions have not changed significantly. The dynamics of interest rates in various segments of the domestic financial market were multidirectional. OFZ yields decreased amid the stabilization of the situation in foreign markets. financial markets. Rates on the deposit and credit market increased slightly. Maintaining positive real interest rates on deposits and bonds will support the attractiveness of savings and balanced consumption growth.
Economic activity. According to Rosstat’s first estimate, GDP growth for 2018 was 2.3%, which is higher than the Bank of Russia’s forecast of 1.5–2%. However, in the last months of 2018, business growth slowed. In December, the growth rates of industrial production, the volume of construction work, real wages and turnover decreased retail. The Bank of Russia maintains its GDP growth forecast of 1.2–1.7% in 2019. The VAT increase may have a slight dampening effect on business activity, mainly at the beginning of the year. Additional received budget resources Already in 2019, they will be aimed at increasing government spending, including of an investment nature. In subsequent years, economic growth rates may increase as planned structural measures are implemented.
Inflation risks. The balance of risks remains shifted towards pro-inflationary risks, especially in the short term due to the increase in VAT and price dynamics for certain food products. Uncertainty remains regarding the further development of external conditions and their impact on the prices of financial assets. Despite the rise in oil prices in January 2019, the risks of supply exceeding demand in the oil market in 2019 remain elevated.
Revisions to the expected pace of monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve and other developed market central banks are reducing the risks of sustained capital outflows from emerging markets. At the same time, geopolitical factors may lead to increased volatility in commodity and financial markets and affect exchange rate and inflation expectations.
The Bank of Russia’s assessment of risks associated with the dynamics wages, possible changes in consumer behavior, budget expenditures, did not change significantly. These risks remain moderate.
The Bank of Russia will make decisions on the key rate, assessing the adequacy of the key rate increase in September and December 2018 to return annual inflation to the target in 2020, taking into account the dynamics of inflation and the economy relative to the forecast, as well as risks from external conditions and reactions to them financial markets.
The next meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia, at which the issue of the level of the key rate will be considered, is scheduled for March 22, 2019. Time of publication of a press release on the decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia - 13:30 Moscow time.
Dynamics of the Bank of Russia refinancing rate from 1992 to 2015. And further...
The material analyzes the dynamics of the refinancing rate over the past 20 years - starting from January 1, 1992. The highest refinancing rate, which was set by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in the period from October 15, 1993 to April 28, 1994, was 210%. Over the course of 10 years, the rate of change in the Central Bank's refinancing rate slowed down, that is, the refinancing rate became more stable. In the period from 1993 to 2000, the refinancing rate changed mainly during the year from 5 to 9 times. In the period from 2002 to 2007, the refinancing rate stabilized and changed during the year from 1 to 3 times, and only downward.During 2008, the refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation constantly grew, and especially often after the start of the global financial crisis. In 2008, the refinancing rate changed 6 times, and this despite the fact that almost all central banks of the leading countries in the world revised rates downward. But despite the difficult financial period, Russia ended 2008 with a refinancing rate of 13.00%. (Instruction of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated November 28, 2008 No. 2135-U “On the amount of the refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia”) and an inflation rate of 13.3%, i.e. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation kept the situation under control.
The refinancing rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation changed 10 times during 2009, all downward. Russia ended 2009 with a Central Bank refinancing rate of 8.75% and inflation of 8.8% (Rosstat data), and these were the lowest figures since 1991, that is, in the entire history of post-Soviet Russia. The low refinancing rate set by the regulator was aimed at stimulating the lending activity of banks, as well as curbing inflationary processes.
In 2010, the Central Bank's refinancing rate changed only 4 times, and only downward. In 2010, the lowest refinancing rate in the entire existence of the Russian Federation was also recorded at 7.75%, which was in effect from June 1, 2010 to February 27, 2011. Russia ended 2010 with a Central Bank refinancing rate of 7.75% and inflation of 8.8%.
Russia ended 2011 with a refinancing rate of 8.00%. This was the fourth value of the Bank of Russia refinancing rate for the year. During the year, the rate was revised three times. Inflation in the Russian Federation in 2011 was 6.1%, which is a historical minimum for the country.
2012 ended with a refinancing rate of 8.25% and inflation of 6.6%. During 2012, the refinancing rate was changed by the Bank of Russia only once - from September 14, upward by 0.25 points. During the previous eight months of 2012, the refinancing rate was 8.00%.
2013 in Russia ended with a refinancing rate of 8.25%, a key rate of 5.5%, and inflation of 6.5%. Throughout 2013, the Bank of Russia refinancing rate remained unchanged and amounted to 8.25%. And from September 13 this year, the refinancing rate began to play secondary importance and the Bank of Russia is provided for reference. According to the Bank of Russia project, by 2016 the refinancing rate will have to be equal in value to the key rate.
2014 ended with a refinancing rate of 8.25%, a key rate of 17% and inflation of 11.4%. During 2014, the policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation should have continued to adjust it to the level of the key rate. In fact, from January to December 2014, the refinancing rate did not change, and due to the sharp increase in the key rate at the end of the year, its change still looks unrealistic.
Throughout 2015, the refinancing rate did not change and the year ended with a refinancing rate of 8.25% and a key rate of 11.0%.
At the beginning of 2016, the refinancing rate was 11.00%, the same as the key rate, and subsequently the change in the refinancing rate occurred simultaneously with the change in the key rate of the Bank of Russia and by the same amount. From January 1, 2016, an independent value of the refinancing rate is not established and the dynamics are not recorded. The key rate changed twice during 2016 (to 10.5% and to 10.0%). At the end of 2016, the key rate was kept at 10.00%.
The key rate/refinancing rate for 2017 changed 6 times and all downward - from 10.11% to 7.75% (At the beginning of the year it was 10.0%, from March 27, 2017 it decreased to 9.75% , from 05/02/2017 decreased to 9.25%, from 06/19/2017 - 9.00%, from 09/18/2017 to 8.50%, from 10/30/2017 to 8.25%, and from 12/18. 2017 to 7.75%).
At the beginning of 2018, the Bank of Russia maintained the key rate at 7.75% per annum, from 02/12/2018 it was reduced to 7.50%, from 03/26/2018 it was reduced to 7.25%, and from 09/17/2018 it was increased to 7. 50% due to changes in external conditions. On December 17, 2018, the last rate change of that year was made to 7.75%, this is the 5th key rate /refinancing rate/ established during 2018.
At the beginning of 2019, the key rate of the Bank of Russia returned to 7.75% per annum and remains at this level for now.
Below are all the refinancing rates of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, starting from 1992 and up to the date of cancellation of its independent official establishment.
| Period of validity of the refinancing rate | Refinancing rate (%) | Regulatory document |
|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2016* | From this date, the value of the refinancing rate corresponds to the value of the key rate of the Bank of Russia - on the corresponding installation date | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated December 11, 2015 No. 3894-U “On the refinancing rate of the Bank of Russia and the key rate of the Bank of Russia” |
| September 14, 2012 - December 31, 2015 | 8,25 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated September 13, 2012 No. 2873-U |
| December 26, 2011 - September 13, 2012 | 8,00 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated December 23, 2011 No. 2758-U |
| May 3, 2011 - December 25, 2011 | 8,25 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated April 29, 2011 No. 2618-U |
| February 28, 2011 - May 2, 2011 | 8,00 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated February 25, 2011 No. 2583-U |
| June 01, 2010 - February 27, 2011 | 7,75 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated May 31, 2010 No. 2450-U |
| April 30, 2010 - May 31, 2010 | 8,00 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated April 29, 2010 No. 2439-U |
| March 29, 2010 - April 29, 2010 | 8,25 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated March 26, 2010 No. 2415-U |
| February 24, 2010 – March 28, 2010 | 8,50 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated February 19, 2010 No. 2399-U |
| December 28, 2009 – February 23, 2010 | 8,75 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated December 25, 2009 No. 2369-U |
| November 25 - December 27, 2009 | 9,0 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated November 24, 2009 No. 2336-U |
| October 30, 2009 - November 24, 2009 | 9,50 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated October 29, 2009 No. 2313-U |
| September 30, 2009 – October 29, 2009 | 10,00 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated September 29, 2009 No. 2299-U |
| September 15, 2009 – September 29, 2009 | 10,50 | Directive of the Bank of Russia dated September 14, 2009 No. 2287-U |
| August 10, 2009 – September 14, 2009 | 10,75 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated August 7, 2009 No. 2270-U |
| July 13, 2009 – August 9, 2009 | 11,0 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated July 10, 2009 No. 2259-U |
| June 5, 2009 – July 12, 2009 | 11,5 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 4, 2009 No. 2247-U |
| May 14, 2009 – June 4, 2009 | 12,0 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated May 13, 2009 No. 2230-U |
| April 24, 2009 - May 13, 2009 | 12,5 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated April 23, 2009 No. 2222-U |
| December 1, 2008 – April 23, 2009 | 13,00 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated November 28, 2008 No. 2135-U |
| November 12, 2008 – November 30, 2008 | 12,00 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated November 11, 2008 No. 2123-U |
| July 14, 2008 - November 11, 2008 | 11,00 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated July 11, 2008 No. 2037-U |
| June 10, 2008 – July 13, 2008 | 10,75 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 06/09/2008 No. 2022-U |
| April 29, 2008 – June 9, 2008 | 10,5 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated April 28, 2008 No. 1997-U |
| February 4, 2008 – April 28, 2008 | 10,25 | Directive of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated February 1, 2008 No. 1975-U |
| June 19, 2007 – February 3, 2008 | 10,0 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 18, 2007 No. 1839-U |
| January 29, 2007 – June 18, 2007 | 10,5 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated January 26, 2007 No. 1788-U |
| October 23, 2006 – January 22, 2007 | 11 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated October 20, 2006 No. 1734-U |
| June 26, 2006 – October 22, 2006 | 11,5 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 23, 2006 No. 1696-U |
| December 26, 2005 – June 25, 2006 | 12 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated December 23, 2005 No. 1643-U |
| June 15, 2004 – December 25, 2005 | 13 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 11, 2004 No. 1443-U |
| January 15, 2004 – June 14, 2004 | 14 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated January 14, 2004 No. 1372-U |
| June 21, 2003 – January 14, 2004 | 16 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 20, 2003 No. 1296-U |
| February 17, 2003 – June 20, 2003 | 18 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated February 14, 2003 No. 1250-U |
| August 7, 2002 – February 16, 2003 | 21 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 06.08.2002 No. 1185-U |
| April 9, 2002 – August 6, 2002 | 23 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated April 8, 2002 No. 1133-U |
| November 4, 2000 – April 8, 2002 | 25 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated November 3, 2000 No. 855-U |
| July 10, 2000 – November 3, 2000 | 28 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated July 7, 2000 No. 818-U |
| March 21, 2000 – July 9, 2000 | 33 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated March 20, 2000 No. 757-U |
| March 7, 2000 – March 20, 2000 | 38 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated March 6, 2000 No. 753-U |
| January 24, 2000 – March 6, 2000 | 45 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated January 21, 2000 No. 734-U |
| June 10, 1999 – January 23, 2000 | 55 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 06/09/99 No. 574-U |
| July 24, 1998 – June 9, 1999 | 60 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated July 24, 1998 No. 298-U |
| June 29, 1998 – July 23, 1998 | 80 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 26, 1998 No. 268-U |
| June 5, 1998 – June 28, 1998 | 60 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 06/04/98 No. 252-U |
| May 27, 1998 – June 4, 1998 | 150 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated May 27, 1998 No. 241-U |
| May 19, 1998 – May 26, 1998 | 50 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated May 18, 1998 No. 234-U |
| March 16, 1998 – May 18, 1998 | 30 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated March 13, 1998 No. 185-U |
| March 2, 1998 – March 15, 1998 | 36 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated February 27, 1998 No. 181-U |
| February 17, 1998 – March 1, 1998 | 39 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated February 16, 1998 No. 170-U |
| February 2, 1998 – February 16, 1998 | 42 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated January 30, 1998 No. 154-U |
| November 11, 1997 – February 1, 1998 | 28 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated November 10, 1997 No. 13-U |
| October 6, 1997 – November 10, 1997 | 21 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 01.10.97 No. 83-97 |
| June 16, 1997 – October 5, 1997 | 24 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 13, 1997 No. 55-97 |
| April 28, 1997 – June 15, 1997 | 36 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated April 24, 1997 No. 38-97 |
| February 10, 1997 – April 27, 1997 | 42 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 02/07/97 No. 9-97 |
| December 2, 1996 – February 9, 1997 | 48 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated November 29, 1996 No. 142-96 |
| October 21, 1996 – December 1, 1996 | 60 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated October 18, 1996 No. 129-96 |
| August 19, 1996 – October 20, 1996 | 80 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated August 16, 1996 No. 109-96 |
| July 24, 1996 – August 18, 1996 | 110 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated July 23, 1996 No. 107-96 |
| February 10, 1996 – July 23, 1996 | 120 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 02/09/96 No. 18-96 |
| December 1, 1995 – February 9, 1996 | 160 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated November 29, 1995 No. 131-95 |
| October 24, 1995 – November 30, 1995 | 170 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated October 23, 1995 No. 111-95 |
| June 19, 1995 – October 23, 1995 | 180 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 16, 1995 No. 75-95 |
| May 16, 1995 – June 18, 1995 | 195 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated May 15, 1995 No. 64-95 |
| January 6, 1995 – May 15, 1995 | 200 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 01/05/95 No. 3-95 |
| November 17, 1994 – January 5, 1995 | 180 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated November 16, 1994 No. 199-94 |
| October 12, 1994 – November 16, 1994 | 170 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated October 11, 1994 No. 192-94 |
| August 23, 1994 – October 11, 1994 | 130 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated August 22, 1994 No. 165-94 |
| August 1, 1994 – August 22, 1994 | 150 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated July 29, 1994 No. 156-94 |
| June 30, 1994 – July 31, 1994 | 155 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 29, 1994 No. 144-94 |
| June 22, 1994 – June 29, 1994 | 170 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 21, 1994 No. 137-94 |
| June 2, 1994 – June 21, 1994 | 185 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 01.06.94 No. 128-94 |
| May 17, 1994 – June 1, 1994 | 200 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated May 16, 1994 No. 121-94 |
| April 29, 1994 – May 16, 1994 | 205 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated April 28, 1994 No. 115-94 |
| October 15, 1993 – April 28, 1994 | 210 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated October 14, 1993 No. 213-93 |
| September 23, 1993 – October 14, 1993 | 180 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated September 22, 1993 No. 200-93 |
| July 15, 1993 – September 22, 1993 | 170 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated July 14, 1993 No. 123-93 |
| June 29, 1993 – July 14, 1993 | 140 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 28, 1993 No. 111-93 |
| June 22, 1993 – June 28, 1993 | 120 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated June 21, 1993 No. 106-93 |
| June 2, 1993 – June 21, 1993 | 110 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated 01.06.93 No. 91-93 |
| March 30, 1993 – June 1, 1993 | 100 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated March 29, 1993 No. 52-93 |
| May 23, 1992 – March 29, 1993 | 80 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated May 22, 1992 No. 01-156 |
| April 10, 1992 – May 22, 1992 | 50 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated April 10, 1992 No. 84-92 |
| January 1, 1992 – April 9, 1992 | 20 | Telegram of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 1991 No. 216-91 |
*The value of the Bank of Russia refinancing rate from January 1, 2016 is equal to the value of the Bank of Russia key rate on the corresponding date. From 01/01/2016, an independent value of the refinancing rate is not established.
Dynamics of the Bank of Russia Key Rate for the period 2016 - 2018 looks like this:
| Validity period of the key rate | Key rate (refinancing rate*) -% |
|---|---|
| from December 17, 2018 - to March 22, 2019 (approximate date) | 7,75 |
| from September 17, 2018 - to December 16, 2018 | 7,50 |
| from March 26, 2018 to September 16. | 7,25 |
| from February 12, 2018 to March 25, 2018. | 7,50 |
| from December 18, 2017 to February 11, 2018. | 7,75 |
| from October 30, 2017 to December 17, 2017. | 8,25 |
| from September 18, 2017 to October 29, 2017. | 8,50 |
| from June 19, 2017 - to September 17, 2017. | 9,00 |
| from May 02, 2017 - to June 18, 2017. | 9,25 |
| from March 27, 2016 to May 1, 2017. | 9,75 |
| from September 19, 2016 to March 26, 2017. | 10,00 |
| from June 14, 2016 - to September 18, 2016 | 10,50 |
| from January 1, 2016 - to June 13, 2016 | 11,00 |
The dynamics of the key rate since its introduction (from September 13, 2013) and the history of its introduction can be viewed
The key rate/refinancing rate for today (from 12/17/2018 to 02/08/2019) is 7.75%.
Decisions made by the Bank of Russia on the refinancing rate
The Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia made the decision to improve the system of monetary policy instruments on September 13, 2013. Based on this decision, the key rate began to play the main role in the bank’s policy, and the refinancing rate plays a secondary role and is given for reference. In addition, the Board of Directors of the Central Bank decided that in the period from September 13, 2013 to January 1, 2016, the refinancing rate will be adjusted to the level of the key rate.
Since 01/01/2016, the refinancing rate on the website of the Central Russia of the Russian Federation is no longer given for reference, since it now corresponds to the key rate.
The decision to adjust the refinancing rate was made on December 11, 2015 The Bank of Russia together with the Government, which provides for the following:
- from January 1, 2016, by decision of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia dated December 11, 2015, the value of the refinancing rate is equal to the value of the Bank of Russia key rate determined on the corresponding date and further its independent value is not established. In the future, changes in the refinancing rate will occur simultaneously with changes in the key rate of the Bank of Russia by the same amount.
- from January 1, 2016, the Government of the Russian Federation will also use the key rate of the Bank of Russia in all regulations instead of the refinancing rate (the order was signed by the Prime Minister of Russia D. Medvedev).