The financial risk of an enterprise is understood as the likelihood of adverse financial consequences in the form of loss of income and capital in a situation of uncertainty in the conditions for carrying out its financial activities.

The financial risks of an enterprise are characterized by great diversity and, in order to effectively manage them, are classified according to the following main characteristics:

By type. This classification feature of financial risks is the main parameter for their differentiation in the management process. The characteristics of a specific type of risk simultaneously give an idea of ​​the factor generating it, which makes it possible to “link” an assessment of the degree of probability of occurrence and the size of possible financial losses according to this species risk to the dynamics of the corresponding factor. The variety of financial risks in their classification system is presented in the widest range. It should be noted that the emergence of new financial instruments and other innovative factors will accordingly give rise to new types of financial risks.

On modern stage The main types of financial risks of an enterprise include the following:

The risk of a decrease in financial stability (or the risk of imbalance in financial development). This risk is generated by the imperfection of the capital structure (excessive share of borrowed funds used), which creates an imbalance in the positive and negative cash flows of the enterprise in terms of volumes. The nature of this risk and the forms of its manifestation are considered in the process of presenting the effects of financial leverage. As part of financial risks regarding the degree of danger (generated threats of bankruptcy of an enterprise), this type of risk plays a leading role.

Risk of enterprise insolvency. This risk is generated by a decrease in the level of liquidity of current assets, which creates an imbalance in the positive and negative cash flows of the enterprise over time. In terms of its financial consequences, this type of risk is also among the most dangerous.

Investment risk. It characterizes the possibility of financial losses occurring during the implementation process. investment activities enterprises. In accordance with the types of this activity, types of investment risk are also divided - the risk of real investment and the risk of financial investment. All considered types of financial risks associated with investment activities belong to the so-called “complex risks”, which in turn are divided into their individual subtypes. So, for example, the risks of untimely completion of design and construction work can be identified as part of the risk of real investment; untimely completion of construction and installation work; untimely opening of financing for an investment project; loss of investment attractiveness of the project due to a possible decrease in its efficiency, etc. Since all subtypes of investment risks are associated with possible loss capital of the enterprise, they are also included in the group of the most dangerous financial risks.

Inflation risk. In an inflationary economy, it stands out as an independent type of financial risk. This type of risk is characterized by the possibility of depreciation of the real value of capital (in the form of financial assets of the enterprise), as well as the expected income from financial transactions in conditions of inflation. Since this type of risk in modern conditions is permanent and accompanies almost all financial transactions of an enterprise, financial management pays constant attention to it.

Interest rate risk. It consists of an unexpected change in the interest rate on the financial market (both deposit and credit). The reason for the occurrence of this type of financial risk (if we eliminate the previously discussed inflation component) is a change in financial market conditions under the influence of government regulation, an increase or decrease in the supply of free monetary resources and other factors. The negative financial consequences of this type of risk are manifested in the issuing activity of the enterprise (when issuing both shares and bonds), in its dividend policy, in short-term financial investments and some other financial transactions.

Currency risk. This type of risk is inherent in enterprises conducting foreign economic activity (importing raw materials, materials and semi-finished products and exporting finished products). It manifests itself in the shortfall in receipt of the intended income as a result of the direct interaction of changes in the exchange rate of foreign currency used in the foreign economic operations of the enterprise on the expected cash flows from these operations. Thus, by importing raw materials and materials, the enterprise loses from an increase in the exchange rate of the corresponding foreign currency in relation to the national one. A decrease in this exchange rate determines the enterprise’s losses when exporting finished products.

Deposit risk. This risk reflects the possibility of non-return of deposits (non-repayment of certificates of deposit). It is relatively rare and is associated with an incorrect assessment and unsuccessful choice of a commercial bank to carry out deposit operations of the enterprise. Nevertheless, cases of deposit risk realization occur not only in our country, but also in countries with developed market economy.

Credit risk. It takes place in the financial activities of an enterprise when providing commodity (commercial) or consumer credit to customers. The form of its manifestation is the risk of non-payment or untimely payment for finished products sold by the enterprise on credit, as well as exceeding the estimated budget for debt collection.

Tax risk. This type of financial risk has a number of manifestations: the likelihood of introducing new types of taxes and fees for the implementation of certain aspects economic activity; the possibility of increasing the level of rates of existing taxes and fees; changing the terms and conditions for making certain tax payments; the likelihood of cancellation of existing tax benefits in the field of economic activity of the enterprise. Being unpredictable for an enterprise (as evidenced by modern domestic fiscal policy), it has a significant impact on the results of its financial activities.

Structural risk. This type of risk is generated by ineffective financing of the current costs of the enterprise, causing a high share fixed costs in their total amount. High ratio operating leverage in case of unfavorable changes in the commodity market conditions and a decrease in the gross volume of positive cash flow from operating activities, it generates a significantly higher rate of decline in the amount of net cash flow for this type of activity (the mechanism of manifestation of this type of risk is discussed in detail when presenting the issue of operating leverage).

Crime risk. In the sphere of financial activities of enterprises, it manifests itself in the form of its partners declaring fictitious bankruptcy; forgery of documents ensuring the misappropriation by third parties of monetary and other assets; theft of certain types of assets own staff and others. The significant financial losses that enterprises incur in this regard at the present stage determine the identification of criminogenic risk as an independent type of financial risk.

Other types of risks. The group of other financial risks is quite extensive, but in terms of the likelihood of occurrence or the level of financial losses, it is not as significant for enterprises as those discussed above. These include the risks of natural disasters and other similar “force majeure risks”, which can lead not only to the loss of the intended benefit, but also of part of the enterprise’s assets (fixed assets; inventories); the risk of untimely execution of settlement and cash transactions (associated with an unsuccessful choice of a servicing commercial bank); emission risk and others.

2. Classification of financial risks

Let us continue to consider the classification of financial risks according to the following main characteristics:

According to the characterized object, the following groups of financial risks are distinguished:

Risk of an individual financial transaction. It characterizes in a complex the entire range of types of financial risks inherent in a certain financial transaction (for example, the risk inherent in the acquisition of a specific share);

Risk of various types of financial activities (for example, the risk of investment or credit activities of an enterprise);

The risk of the financial activity of the enterprise as a whole. The complex of various types of risks inherent in the financial activities of an enterprise is determined by the specifics of the organizational and legal form of its activities, the capital structure, the composition of assets, the ratio of constant and variable costs etc.

Based on the set of instruments studied:

Individual financial risk. It characterizes the total risk inherent in individual financial instruments;

Portfolio financial risk. It characterizes the total risk inherent in a complex of single-functional financial instruments combined into a portfolio (for example, a company’s loan portfolio, its investment portfolio, etc.).

According to the complexity of the study:

Simple financial risk. It characterizes a type of financial risk that is not divided into its individual subtypes. An example of a simple financial risk is inflation risk;

Complex financial risk. It characterizes the type of financial risk, which consists of a complex of its subtypes under consideration. An example of complex financial risk is investment risk (for example, the risk of an investment project).

5. Based on their sources, the following groups of financial risks are distinguished:

External, systematic or market risk (all terms define this risk as independent of the activities of the enterprise). This type of risk is typical for all participants in financial activities and all types of financial transactions. It occurs when individual stages change economic cycle, changes in financial market conditions and in a number of other similar cases that the enterprise cannot influence in the course of its activities. This group of risks may include inflation risk, interest rate risk, currency risk, tax risk and partially investment risk (if macroeconomic investment conditions change);

Internal, unsystematic or specific risk (all terms define this financial risk as depending on the activities of a particular enterprise). It may be associated with unqualified financial management, ineffective asset and capital structure, excessive commitment to risky (aggressive) financial transactions with high rates of return, underestimation of business partners and other similar factors, the negative consequences of which can be largely prevented through effective financial management. risks.

The division of financial risks into systematic and unsystematic is one of the important initial premises of the theory of risk management.

According to financial consequences, all risks are divided into the following groups:

A risk that entails only economic losses. With this type of risk, the financial consequences can only be negative;

A risk that entails lost profits. It characterizes a situation when an enterprise, due to existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out a planned financial transaction (for example, if its credit rating is reduced, the enterprise cannot obtain the necessary loan and use the effect of financial leverage);

A risk that entails both economic losses and additional income. In the literature, this type of financial risk is often called “speculative financial risk”, since it is associated with the implementation of speculative (aggressive) financial transactions. However, this term (in this connection) seems not entirely accurate, since this type of risk is inherent not only in speculative financial transactions (for example, the risk of implementing a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).

Based on the nature of their manifestation over time, two groups of financial risks are distinguished:

Constant financial risk. It is typical for the entire period of a financial transaction and is associated with the action of constant factors. An example of such financial risk is interest rate risk, currency risk, etc.

Temporary financial risk. It characterizes risk that is permanent in nature, arising only at certain stages of a financial transaction. An example of this type of financial risk is the risk of insolvency of an effectively functioning enterprise.

Based on the level of financial losses, risks are divided into the following groups:

Acceptable financial risk. It characterizes the risk for which financial losses do not exceed the estimated amount of profit for the financial transaction;

Critical financial risk. It characterizes the risk for which financial losses do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income for the financial transaction;

Catastrophic financial risk. It characterizes the risk for which financial losses are determined by the partial or complete loss of equity capital (this type of risk may be accompanied by the loss of borrowed capital).

If foreseeable, financial risks are divided into the following two groups:

Forecasted financial risk. It characterizes those types of risks that are associated with the cyclical development of the economy, changing stages of financial market conditions, predictable development of competition, etc. The predictability of financial risks is relative, because forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon in question from the category of risks. An example of predicted financial risks are inflation risk, interest rate risk and some other types of them (in the short term);

Unpredictable financial risk. It characterizes types of financial risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. An example of such risks are the risks of force majeure, tax risk and some others.

According to this classification criterion, financial risks are also divided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.

If insurance is possible, financial risks are also divided into two groups:

Insurable financial risk. These include risks that can be transferred through external insurance to the relevant insurance organizations (in accordance with the range of financial risks accepted by them for insurance);

Uninsurable financial risk. These include those types for which there is no supply of appropriate insurance products on the insurance market.

The composition of the risks of these two groups under consideration is very flexible and is associated not only with the ability to predict them, but also with the effectiveness of certain types of insurance operations in specific economic conditions under the existing forms of state regulation of insurance activities.

3. Characteristics of financial risk

Financial risk is one of the most complex categories associated with business activities, which has the following main characteristics:

Economic nature.

Financial risk manifests itself in the sphere of economic activity of an enterprise, is directly related to the formation of its profit and is characterized by its possible economic losses in the process of carrying out financial activities. Taking into account the listed economic forms of its manifestation, financial risk is characterized as an economic category, occupying a certain place in the system of economic categories associated with the implementation of the economic process.

Objectivity of manifestation.

Financial risk is an objective phenomenon in the functioning of any enterprise. Risk accompanies almost all types of financial transactions and all areas of financial activity of an enterprise. Although a number of financial risk parameters depend on subjective management decisions, the objective nature of its manifestation remains unchanged.

Probability of implementation.

The probability of the financial risk category is manifested in the fact that a risk event may or may not occur in the process of carrying out the financial activities of the enterprise. The degree of this probability is determined by the action of both objective and subjective factors, but the probabilistic nature of financial risk is its constant characteristic.

Uncertainty of consequences.

This characteristic of financial risk is determined by the indeterminacy of its financial results, primarily the level of profitability of ongoing financial transactions. The expected level of performance of financial transactions may vary depending on the type of risk level within a fairly significant range. Financial risk can be accompanied by both significant financial losses for the enterprise and the formation of additional income.

Expected adverse consequences.

The consequences of financial risk can be characterized by both negative and positive indicators of financial performance; this risk in business practice is characterized and measured by the level of possible adverse consequences. This is due to the fact that a number of extremely negative consequences of financial risk determine the loss of not only income, but also the capital of the enterprise, which leads it to bankruptcy (i.e., to irreversible negative consequences for its activities).

Level variability.

The level of financial risk inherent in a particular financial transaction or a certain type of financial activity of an enterprise is not constant. First of all, financial risk varies significantly over time, i.e. depends on the duration of the financial transaction, because the time factor has an independent impact on the level of financial risk (manifested through the level of liquidity of invested financial assets, uncertainty in the movement of interest rates in the financial market, etc.). In addition, the indicator of the level of financial risk varies significantly under the influence of numerous objective and subjective factors that are in constant dynamics.

Subjectivity of assessment.

Despite the objective nature of financial risk as an economic phenomenon, its main evaluative indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity, i.e. the unequal assessment of this objective phenomenon is determined by the different level of completeness and reliability of the information base, the qualifications of financial managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.

4. Risk insurance

Risk insurance, the main method of reducing risk. Probable loss insurance not only serves as reliable protection against bad decisions, but also increases the responsibility of decision makers, forcing them to take the development and adoption of decisions more seriously and regularly carry out protective measures in accordance with insurance contracts. True, it is difficult to use the insurance mechanism when developing new products or new technologies, since insurance companies in such cases do not have sufficient data to make calculations.

In most cases, risk insurance involves insurance:

construction, installation, commissioning risks and warranty obligations;

property;

equipment from breakdowns;

civil liability;

life and health of leading employees.

Russian insurance companies traditionally provide insurance for all listed species. Fundamentally new approaches to business risk insurance for the Russian market are:

business interruption insurance;

insurance against the risks of non-fulfillment of contractual obligations.

Business interruption insurance

An enterprise can insure against losses due to production downtime (provision of services) that arises for reasons beyond the control of the enterprise. Depending on the terms of the insurance contract, losses, for example, of a production company may be compensated, incurred both as a result of a complete stoppage of activities, and due to a partial decrease in turnover associated with the occurrence of an insured event.

Insurance against loss of profit due to forced interruption in production is carried out, as a rule, together with other types of insurance, for example, property insurance.

The insurance contract provides for the payment of compensation if a production interruption is caused by one of the following reasons (insured events): fire, lightning strike, explosion, illegal actions of third parties, natural disasters, etc. (except for military operations or changes in the political situation in the country).

In order to avoid further disagreements with the insurance company, the business interruption insurance contract must indicate the most complete list of cost items that will be compensated, as well as a detailed algorithm for determining them.

As a rule, according to the terms of the insurance contract, the insurance company undertakes to indemnify:

a) lost profit (the amount of profit during the downtime period is determined based on the profit received during last year; if the company had no profit last year, then the lost profit under the insurance contract is not paid);

b) expenses incurred to prevent business interruption;

V) fixed costs, independent of production volumes (number of services provided, work performed), including:

social security expenses and wages employees (except for those for whom piecework wages are established);

premises rental fee;

interest on loans taken out before the occurrence of the insured event;

taxes and fees that do not depend on the results of the insured activity (property tax, land tax, registration fees, etc.).

The liability limit of the insurance company (the maximum amount of payments) is determined as the amount of losses and lost profits, calculated on the basis of financial statements for the maximum possible period of termination of activity, which is determined by expert opinion.

When drawing up a contract special attention it is necessary to pay attention to the size of the established deductible, which can be determined either in days or as a percentage of the maximum payment amount. The deductible amount for business interruption insurance contracts is usually 3-10 days.

The insurance rate is set by the insurance company depending on:

from the sector of the national economy to which the enterprise belongs;

from the maximum insured period of production interruption;

from the established franchise amount.

The insurance rate may vary between 0.6-5%2 of the insured amount.

Insurance against the risk of non-fulfillment of contractual obligations

Among the most popular methods of insuring the risk of non-fulfillment of obligations are insurance of commercial (commodity) loans and leasing operations.

Commercial loan insurance

The object of the commercial credit insurance contract is the property interests of the enterprise, which may be violated due to full or partial non-payment by debtors for goods (work, services) actually received.

The insurance company pays compensation in the following cases:

the debtor is declared bankrupt in court;

force majeure (except for the risks of military operations and political risks);

long delay in payment, which is stipulated in the insurance contract and can range from 60 to 360 days, depending on the specifics of the enterprise’s activities.

In this case, the damage incurred is not compensated in the event of a production accident, lack of necessary goods, cash, intentional failure to fulfill contractual obligations, etc.

In case of failure to fulfill contractual obligations due to force majeure, the insurance company pays insurance amount usually within 30 days. If the default is caused by the bankruptcy of the counterparty, then the insurance company must pay compensation after the debtor is declared bankrupt by a court decision.

As a rule, when insuring commercial (commodity) loans, a general insurance agreement is concluded. An enterprise that has entered into such an agreement reports all its customers to the insurance company, which assesses their solvency. To determine the degree of insurance risk and make a decision regarding the amount of the insurance premium, the insurance company may request constituent documents, financial statements, copies of contracts, certificate of creditworthiness and other necessary documents.

Based on the results of checking the submitted documents, a list of companies is formed whose issuance of a commercial loan will be insured. For each counterparty, the maximum amount of the insured amount is established. The tariff is 1-2.5% of the maximum payment amount established in the agreement, and is calculated separately for each counterparty based on:

number of contracts per month;

average contract amount;

the presence of permanent contracts with counterparties;

presence of losses.

Contracts with counterparties who have receivables to the company at the time of signing the contract are not insured. However, these debtors can be included in the insurance coverage after the receivables are settled. If a new counterparty appears or significant terms of the contract change, the insurance company reserves the right to change the terms of insurance: reduce or increase the rate, as well as refuse to insure the counterparty if its solvency is in doubt.

If an insured event occurs, the amount of loss and compensation that will be paid to the company that insured its risk will include:

the amount of damage in the amount of the cost of lost goods or unfulfilled obligations;

lost profit (profit);

additional costs for determining the amount of damage, legal costs, etc.

The term for which the insurance contract is concluded is equal to the term of the contract under which the obligations arose.

Insurance of leasing operations

Currently, in the insurance market it is possible to insure not only the property leased, but also the financial risk associated with leasing operations: complete or partial failure to pay the lease payment on time without taking into account the profit of the leasing company. It is important to note that the insurance contract does not cover losses caused by changes in exchange rates, penalties, interest on late payments, fines and other indirect costs.

The lessor's financial risk insurance agreement is concluded for a period equal to the term of the leasing agreement, and the insurance rate ranges from 0.5-5% of the maximum indemnity amount.

Insured events under a leasing agreement are similar to those established for commercial loan insurance agreements.

Only the leasing company that provides the property on lease can insure the risk of non-payment of lease payments. Accordingly, the insurance company compensates for the losses of the leasing company.

5. Methods for avoiding financial risk

The method of avoiding financial risk is to develop such measures internal character, which completely eliminate a specific type of financial risk.

The main measures to avoid financial risks include:

Refusal to carry out financial transactions whose risk level is excessively high

Despite the high effectiveness of this measure, its use is limited, because Most financial transactions are related to the implementation of the main production commercial activities an enterprise that ensures regular receipt of income and the formation of its profit.

Refusal to use high amounts of borrowed capital

Reducing the share of borrowed funds in economic turnover allows one to avoid one of the most significant financial risks - loss of financial stability of the enterprise. At the same time, such risk avoidance entails a reduction in the effect of financial leverage, i.e. the possibility of obtaining an additional amount of profit on invested capital.

Refusal of excessive use of current assets in low-liquid forms

Increasing the level of liquidity of assets allows you to avoid the risk of insolvency of the enterprise in the future. However, such risk avoidance deprives the enterprise of additional income from expanding the volume of sales of products on credit and partially gives rise to new risks associated with disruption of the rhythm of the operating process due to a decrease in the size of safety stocks of raw materials, supplies, and finished products.

Refusal to use temporarily free monetary assets in short-term financial investments

This measure avoids deposit and interest risk, but generates inflation risk, as well as the risk of lost profits.

The listed and other measures to avoid financial risk, despite their radicalism in rejecting certain types of them, deprive the enterprise of additional sources of profit generation, and accordingly negatively affect the pace of its economic development and the efficiency of using its own capital.

5. Concept of a risk situation

The concept of “risk situation”, according to Encyclopedic Dictionary(Efimov S.L. “Economics and Insurance”), is defined as follows: all risk circumstances taken in unity and interaction; determine the natural state of insurance objects and the environment (interdependent cause-and-effect relationships) in which this object is located.

The existence of risk is directly related to uncertainty. Uncertainty presupposes the presence of factors in which the results of actions are not deterministic, and the degree possible influence these factors on results are unknown; This is incompleteness or inaccuracy of information about the conditions of the project.

The following three types of situation are distinguished:

a situation of certainty, when the choice of a specific course of action from a set of possible ones always leads to a known, precisely defined outcome;

a risk situation in which the choice of a specific course of action, generally speaking, can lead to any outcome from a fixed set of them. However, for each alternative the probabilities of a possible outcome are known, i.e. each alternative is characterized by a finite probability set;

a situation of uncertainty is characterized by the fact that the choice of a specific course of action can lead to any outcome from a fixed set of outcomes, but the probabilities of their occurrence are unknown. Here two cases can be distinguished: either the probabilities are unknown due to the lack of necessary statistical information, or there is no point in talking about objective probabilities at all.

Thus, the risk situation is characterized by the following characteristics:

presence of uncertainty;

the need to choose action alternatives (it must be borne in mind that refusal to choose is also a type of choice);

the ability to assess the likelihood of implementing the chosen alternative, because In a situation of uncertainty, the probability of events occurring is, in principle, unidentifiable.

A risk situation is a type of uncertainty situation when the occurrence of events is probable and can be certain. In other words, risk is a probability assessed in any way, and uncertainty is something that cannot be assessed.

Speaking about uncertainty, we note that it can manifest itself in different ways:

in the form of probability distributions (the distribution of a random variable is precisely known, but it is unknown what specific value the random variable will take)

in the form of subjective probabilities (the distribution of a random variable is unknown, but the probabilities of individual events determined by expert methods are known);

in the form of interval uncertainty (the distribution of a random variable is unknown, but it is known that it can take any value in a certain interval).

Bibliography

1. Efimov S.L. Economics and insurance: Encycl. words -M., 1996

2. Fomichev A. Risk management: Dashkov and K-M., 2008

3. Risk management. Baldin K.V., Vorobiev S.N., student. benefit 2005

4. Risk management. Chernova G.V., Kudryavtsev A.A. training manual, 2005

Tutoring

Need help studying a topic?

Our specialists will advise or provide tutoring services on topics that interest you.
Submit your application indicating the topic right now to find out about the possibility of obtaining a consultation.

In a broad sense, project implementation risks are conditions or events that affect the outcome of the project. Such influences can be accompanied by a positive, “zero” or negative effect. In a narrower sense, project risks are defined as potentially adverse impacts that entail losses and damages, since the risk-related nature of uncertainty is considered as an element of unpredictable deterioration of the situation due to internal and external circumstances.

Possible project risks and responses to them depend on the parameters of probability, risk magnitude, significance of consequences, risk tolerance, and the availability of reserves (including management ones) in case of risk situations.

Project risks: dictionary of concepts

Project risks exhibit the effect of accumulating the probabilities of events affecting the project. Moreover, the event itself can bring both benefit and damage, have varying degrees of uncertainty, different causes and consequences (changes in labor costs, financial costs, failures in the action plan).

Uncertainty here is the state of objective factors that have a direct or indirect impact on the project, while the degree of influence does not allow us to accurately predict the consequences of the decisions of project participants due to the inaccuracy or unavailability of complete information. Therefore, it is possible to manage only that group of risks for which there is access to significant information.

Risk probability is the possibility of a threat occurring in the range from 0 to 100 percent. Extreme values ​​are not considered risks, since the zero limit means the impossibility of the event occurring, and 100 percent guarantee must be provided for in the project as a fact. An event that has a very high degree of probability (for example, a guaranteed price increase by a supplier) is often completely excluded from consideration in the context of the topic of project risks. Probability is determined by two types of methods:

• objective, when the probability of a result obtained under similar conditions is calculated with statistical certainty based on the frequency of the event;
• subjective, based on the assumption of a possible continuation or outcome, and the assumption itself is based on the understanding of the logic of the process by the decision-maker and his experience, which the subject represents in numerical terms.

If there is insufficient information about potential costs (for example, after the launch of the project there was an unexpected change in tax legislation), then a special reserve is set aside for such unknown risks, and management procedures are not implemented. The contingency reserve can be either an additional amount or additional time and should be included in the project cost baseline.

If changes can be judged in advance, then a response plan is built aimed at minimizing risks. As a rule, the boundaries of risk management partially cover the information field for which there is no information (complete uncertainty), and partially cover the field with complete certainty, for which there is comprehensive information. Within these boundaries are known and unknown factors that make up general and specific uncertainty.

Since in projects there is a decision maker, the concept of risk can be associated with his activities. Probability here is the magnitude of the possibility that, as a result of making a decision, an undesirable outcome associated with losses will follow.

In addition to internal factors, the project is also affected by external factors

with different uncertainties and different degrees of tolerance to them among project participants and investors. Tolerance here is defined as the degree of readiness for the possible implementation of threats. Often - especially in the case of low probability and low risk - project participants consciously accept the risk, shifting their efforts not to preventing the threat, but to eliminating its consequences. Acceptance refers to one of four basic types of response to a potential threat.

The degree of risk tolerance depends on the volume and reliability of investments, the planned level of profitability, the familiarity of the project to the company, the complexity of the business model and other factors. The more complex the business model, the more thoroughly and in detail the risks should be assessed. At the same time, the typicality of the project for the company is considered a higher priority factor when assessing riskiness than the volume of invested funds. For example, construction retail store, included in a retail network, can become a high-budget project, however, if the implementation uses proven and well-known technologies, then the risks will be lower than when implementing a less expensive but new project. If, for example, the same company reorients or expands its activities and decides to open a catering establishment, it will face a different level of risk, since everything will be unfamiliar to retailers: from the principle of choosing a location and forming a competitive price to the development of a recognizable concept and a new supply chain .

As we move from solving one project problem to solving another problem, the types of risks may change. As a result, it is advisable to carry out risk analysis of an investment project several times during the project, transforming the risk map as necessary. However, in the initial stages of project implementation (during concept formation and design) this is of particular importance, since early detection and preparedness significantly reduces losses.

Sequence of assessment and management activities project risks is represented by a management concept that includes the following elements:

1. Risk management planning.
2. Risk identification.
3. Qualitative analysis.
4. Quantitative assessment.
5. Response planning.
6. Tracking and controlling changes to the risk map.

Risk management involves first making project participants aware of the uncertainties in the project environment, then expanding capabilities that increase the likelihood of achieving the planned result, and finally finalizing project plans that include measures to reduce risks.

Stages of risk management

Within the popular project management concept of the PMBoK framework from PMI, there are 6 progressive and interconnected stages of risk management:

Risk management planning

During planning, the strategy for organizing the process is determined, and the rules of interaction are determined. Planning occurs by:

• creating a management environment by popularizing the process for project participants and harmonizing their relationships,
• using ready-made templates, standards, schemes, management formats familiar in a given company,
• creating a description of the content of the project.

The main process-tool in this case becomes a meeting in which members of the project team, managers, executives, and persons responsible for the use of investments (if the risks of the investment project are planned) take part. The result of planning is a document in which, in addition to general provisions, must be entered:

• methods and tools for risk management by stages of implementation,
• distribution of roles for project participants in the event of a risk situation and threat realization,
• acceptable ranges and threshold values ​​of risks,
• principles of recalculation if the risks of investment projects change during the course of the project,
• rules and formats for reporting and documentation,
• monitoring formats.

In general, the output should be an algorithm of actions that everyone can understand in the event of threats arising and realized.

Identification

Risk identification occurs regularly, since threats may undergo qualitative and quantitative changes during the course of the project. Identification is more effective when there is a detailed classification of the risks relevant to a typical project. If a company is working on new, unfamiliar projects, the classification should be as broad as possible so that no risks are missed.

Since there is no comprehensive classification of risks, more convenient formats for a specific project are most often used. So, classifications based on the criterion of risk controllability are considered universal and popular, which describe the level of control with the division of threats into external and internal. External unpredictable and uncontrollable risks, for example, include political risks, natural disasters, sabotage. The external ones are partially controllable and predictable - social, marketing, currency and inflation. Internal controllable risks associated with technology and design, etc. But in general, it is more advisable to create relevant groups for a specific project, especially if it is atypical for the company.

To do this, all possible expert opinions are involved, the widest possible range of information is used, all known methods, from brainstorming and Crawford cards to the analogy method and the use of diagrams. The result should be an exhaustive hierarchical list of risks with their two-part description “source of threat + threatening event”, for example: “risk of failure of financing due to cessation of investment.”

Qualitative and quantitative risk assessment

Quantitative analysis is more labor-intensive, but also more accurate. It shows the percentage probability of risks and their consequences occurring in numerical values. Thanks to it, you can trace how the profitability of the project will change with a quantitative change in one or another parameter from the list of critical ones. of this project risks. When substituting algorithms into the current project model, thanks to quantitative analysis, it is easy to understand at what values ​​the project will become unprofitable and which risk factors influence this more than others.

Sometimes a qualitative analysis done with the involvement of experts and making an informed value judgment is enough to draw up a map of the probability of risk and the degree of its impact on the project. At the output, after the analytical part, a ranked list should be formed:

• with prioritized risks,
• with positions that require clarification,
• with an assessment of the riskiness of the entire project.

This result can be clearly presented in the form of a risk matrix, which includes not only threats, but also favorable opportunities created by the uncertainty of the situation.

The more complex the project, the more carefully the assessment needs to be carried out, and then quantitative analysis methods cannot be avoided. Among the most popular methods are:

• probabilistic analysis based on the principles of probability theory and statistical data from previous periods,
• sensitivity analysis based on changes in results due to changes in the values ​​of specified variables,
• scenario analysis with the development of project development options in comparison,
• simulation modeling (“Monte Carlo”), which involves repeated experiments with the project model, etc.

For some of them (for example, for the simulation method), it is necessary to use special software, since it is necessary to process a large array random numbers, simulating the “unpredictable” state of the market.

Planning your response

When choosing response methods, we focus on 4 main types of strategy:

• Evasion (avoidance) – elimination of sources of risk.
• Insurance (transfer) – attracting a third party to take on the risks.
• Minimization (reduction) – reducing the likelihood of a threat occurring.
• Acceptance - the passive form implies conscious readiness for a threat, and the active form - agreement on a plan of action in the event of the occurrence of unforeseen, but accepted circumstances.

Each method can be used for its own type of risk as optimal.

Monitoring and Control

Control and management activities must be carried out throughout the project. The occurrence of an unforeseen risk event in the final stages threatens greater losses than in the initial stages.

During monitoring, the values ​​of already identified risks are revised and sometimes new ones are identified. In addition, deviations and trends are analyzed, as well as the state of reserves required to cover remaining risks.

Identification of economic risks in enterprises: traditional and innovative projects

All risks are grouped by type, but for each project manager or head of the system analysis and risk management department, there are groups of the most serious threats, formed on the basis of practice and previous experience in the context of the activity. For example, production managers most often identify risks associated with:

• with accidents and accidents,
• with property issues that harm the fixed assets of the enterprise,
• with questions of pricing of finished products and prices of raw materials,
• with market transformations (changes in stock indices, exchange rates and securities prices),
• with the actions of fraudsters and theft in production.

The manager of a trading enterprise usually adds to the list of basic ones:

• logistics risks,
• mediation problems,
• risks associated with the actions of unscrupulous suppliers,
• dangers of receivables from wholesalers (primarily when payment is carried out with deferred payment).

In a competitive and organized enterprise, which has already repeatedly implemented typical projects for itself, a list of characteristic risks and factors provoking them is very quickly formed. The value of such lists is that not only the content side of the issue has been worked out, but also the form: the description of the risk receives a clear, unambiguous formulation, honed by previous projects, which simplifies the consideration and response format. In addition to the lists, it is advisable to create a visual table with coordinates according to the parameters of the probability of risk and possible damage. In such a table it is more convenient to track the dynamics of risk changes.

Traditional projects

Since the risks are similar for traditional projects under certain conditions, they can be standardized and grouped together.

No. 1. Group of risks related to product consumption

Among the reasons that create risks from this group are:

1. The presence of a monopolist consumer in the market, resulting in:
   • unable to influence prices
   • financial costs for maintaining reserves in warehouses increase,
   • unfavorable clauses are introduced in contracts (for example, long deferred payments).
2. Market capacity, which turns out to be less than the total capacity of enterprises in the industry. This, for example, happened in the post-perestroika period, when the construction of panel-type houses sharply decreased, and the demand for reinforced concrete slabs became less than the capabilities of the enterprises producing them.
3. Loss of relevance of products. An example of the realization of this risk was the loss of relevance of one electronic medium after another (first floppy disks, then CDs, etc.).
4. Changes in production technology. This threat is relevant in the B2B market, when, when changing production technology, it is necessary to change the entire pattern of interaction between enterprises that were previously in the production chain.

The risks of this group can be minimized by monitoring the market, changing the sales system and by developing new niches.

No. 2. Group of risks associated with market competition

Risks from the second group are classified as follows:

1. Situations that threaten the financial situation due to a significant share of gray imports on the market, which results in:
   • price dumping by sellers who smuggle goods,
   • a decrease in consumer loyalty, which is provoked by the low quality of counterfeit products, which casts a shadow on all products of this kind.
2. Large secondary market creating:
   • reputational risks as a result of an attempt to pass off a used item as new,
   • the threat of underutilization of production (an example is the secondary market for drill pipes, which takes away a share from an enterprise producing pipes for the primary market).
3. A low barrier to entry into the market, which easily increases competition and affects pricing, adding a reputational threat that products can be easily counterfeited.

Risks from this group can be minimized by trying to lobby for the introduction/abolition of duties at the legislative level, labeling your products using multiple degrees of protection, changing the market or sales networks, expanding your activities to new niches (for example, introducing after-sales service for your products).

No. 3. Group of risks associated with the commodity market

In this group, an enterprise may suffer from the following factors:

1. The presence of a monopolist supplier who is able to inflate prices for raw materials and arbitrarily change the terms of the contract. Among other things, this forces us to maintain a large supply of raw materials in warehouses, which increases the financing of the project.
2. Shortage of raw materials, leading to higher prices and downtime of production facilities.

If there is a raw materials monopolist, risks are minimized by searching for similar raw materials, reorienting to the dealers of the main supplier, and creating a strategic mutually beneficial alliance with the monopolist. If there is a shortage of raw materials, it is effective to minimize risks by creating your own raw material base. In addition, if a shortage occurs due to the departure of raw materials to a market with higher prices, you can repurchase raw materials from the supplier at the same prices, but at the same time, you will probably need to increase the selling price of the finished product.

No. 4. Group of risks associated with organizing and running a business

A number of threats may arise here, but in practice, most often, two are realized:

1. The actual sales pattern of goods differs from the planned one, which is due to:
   • lack of control over dealers and their pricing,
   • insufficient payment discipline,
   • overstocking due to price imbalance,
   • logistic errors.
2. Dividing the business chain between different independent companies. Each of them can find another partner. For example, a manufacturing company working in conjunction with a selling company may lose the opportunity to sell products if the selling company finds a more “interesting” manufacturer (supplier).

Here, the dangers are reduced by creating your own sales units or searching for new partners.

Specific risks of innovation projects

ABOUT high level risk in innovation activity is shown by the following statistics: out of a hundred venture capital firms, 10-20% avoid bankruptcy. But high risks are accompanied by a high rate of profit for innovative projects, which is usually much higher than the profit from traditional types of business activities. This fact stimulates innovation and activates the innovation sphere.

In innovative projects there are dependencies: the more localized the project, the higher the risks. If there are several projects, and they are dispersed in the industry, then the likelihood of success of innovative entrepreneurship increases. And the profit from a successful project covers the costs of unsuccessful developments.

In general, risks in innovative entrepreneurship arise from the creation of new goods, services and technologies, which, with an increased probability, will not be able to gain the expected popularity, and management innovations will not bring the expected effect.

Innovation risks may arise in the following situations:

1. When the introduction of a cheaper production method (or service) loses its technological uniqueness.
2. When new product is created using old equipment that cannot provide the required level of quality of a product or service.
3. When the relevance of demand decreases (for example, fashion passes).

Based on this, innovative entrepreneurship is characterized by the following threats:

• wrong choice of project,
• failure to provide the project with sufficient funding,
• failure to fulfill business contracts due to the specific complexity of the innovation,
• unforeseen costs for improving the “raw” product,
• personnel problems associated with the lack of competence to implement innovation,
• loss of uniqueness and status of “special technology”,
• violation of property rights,
• the whole range of marketing risks.

The legislation of the Russian Federation provides for the concept of entrepreneurial risk, which makes it possible to apply risk reduction methods to innovative entrepreneurial projects: insure risks, prudently reserve funds, and diversify the project.

• Risk insurance. If the participant himself cannot guarantee the implementation of the project, then he transfers certain risks to the insurance company. Abroad, full insurance is used when it comes to investment projects. Russian insurance practice allows for now to insure individual components of the project (equipment, personnel, real estate, etc.).
• Reserving funds. Here the relationship is established between potential risks that affect the cost of the project and the amount of funds required to overcome violations. The reserve value must be equal to or greater than the fluctuation value. In Russian practice, for example, the cost of the duration of work by Russian contractors involves adding 20% ​​of costs.
• Diversification. Distribution of risks between project participants.

Minimizing risks inevitably increases project costs, but at the same time increases project profit.

In economic science, several options for classifying risks have been formed.

The general system of risks, which includes various options for their classification and covers all types of economic activity, groups risks according to the following criteria.

• 1. By area of ​​origin or by nature of accounting:
  • a) external risks (the source of their occurrence is the environment external to the enterprise);
  • b) internal risks (the source of occurrence is the enterprise itself).
• 2. By decision level:
  • a) macroeconomic (global) risks;
  • b) risks at the level of an individual enterprise (local).
• 3. By duration of action over time:
  • a) short-term risks (for example, transport risk);
  • b) permanent risks (for example, the risk of non-payment).
• 4. By degree of legality:
  • a) justified risk;
  • b) unjustified risk.
• 5. Depending on degree of impact:
  • a) acceptable or minimal risk (losses less than expected profits);
  • b) critical risk of the first degree (losses are equal to the expected profit) and critical risk of the second degree (at a given level of losses, production costs do not pay off);
  • c) catastrophic risk (threat of bankruptcy).
• 6. Depending on insurance options:
  • a) insured risks (for example, losses resulting from damage or destruction of products during transportation, failure to fulfill obligations by subcontractors);
  • b) uninsurable risks (commercial).
• 7. By objects exposed to risk:
  • a) risks of harm to the life and health of citizens;
  • b) property risks. This grouping is used in the insurance business.
• 8. By the nature of the consequences of exposure to risk:
  • a) pure risks, i.e., meaning the possibility of obtaining only a negative or zero result (for example, natural, environmental, transport);
  • b) speculative risks, i.e., those that can bring both losses and profits to the enterprise (stock exchange risks).
• 9. By types of losses arising from exposure to risk:
  • a) risk of wasting time;
  • b) the risk of losing money.

This principle of risk classification is mainly used in foreign practice. An increase in one of the two types of risk usually leads to the emergence of another, which is due to the high degree of their interdependence.

• 10. By the ratio of the manifestation of probable negative and positive consequences of risk:
  • a) acceptable risk corresponding to a certain balance between the expected benefit and the threat of loss;
  • b) a risk unacceptable for an economic entity.

The presented risk system is universal, since it can be used to characterize various types of economic activities. Any of the presented risk classification criteria can be used to characterize the types of risks identified according to other classification systems. One of them - the most common - is related to the distribution of risk across various directions activities of the enterprise.

According to the approach to classifying risk by main areas and areas of activity of an enterprise (organization), the following types of risk are distinguished:

• 1. Production risks - associated with the implementation of any type of production activity. Sometimes production-economic, production-technical, production-technological risks are distinguished, based on the specifics of the production process.
• 2. Innovation risks are associated with the likelihood of losses arising when an enterprise invests funds in the production of new goods and services, as well as during the development, development and implementation of technological, organizational and other innovations. To a certain extent, innovation risk is a type of production risk, which is difficult to disagree with.
• 3. Financial risks - These are the risks of the probability of loss of funds in the process of carrying out financial activities by the enterprise.
• 4. Commercial risks occupy a special place in the classification system. They arise in the process of selling goods and services and are caused by the likelihood of loss of resources, loss of income or the emergence of additional costs as a result of commercial transactions.
• 5. Information risks are caused by the danger of losses due to errors in the collection, analysis, control and regulation of the information base of the enterprise’s activities. For example, incorrect choice of goals, unreasonable determination of priorities for the overall economic and market strategy of the enterprise; inconsistency of the organizational and economic structure with the goals of the enterprise; ineffective accounting and financial reporting systems; changes in the volume, reliability, reliability of source information; change in the frequency and regularity of messages; insufficient technical level of information processing tools, etc.
• 6. Social risks are associated with the ineffective organization of social infrastructure and shortcomings in ensuring the safety of workers.
• 7. Environmental risks are caused by violations of established norms, environmental protection and life safety standards.
• 8. Political risks are risks of the external environment. These include: country, currency, tax risks, as well as the risk of force majeure.

The division of risks by type and area of ​​activity of an enterprise is an enlarged classification.

Within a separate, specific field of activity, the types of risk characteristic of it are identified. For example, the most common banking risks are:

• 1. Liquidity risk - the risk associated with the loss of the bank’s ability to promptly and fully fulfill its debt and financial obligations to all counterparties, which, in turn, is determined by the relationship between own capital bank, attracted and placed funds.
• 2. Interest rate risk - arises due to a discrepancy between the volume of claims and obligations of the bank with a fixed interest rate, which have the same deadlines.
• 3. Risk of insufficient diversification of the bank's assets/liabilities - leads to increased level the bank’s dependence on individual segments of financial markets and the difficulties associated with the transition to new financial instruments.
• 4. Operational risk- associated with possible errors during operations, abuse of power by officials, and abuses.
• 5. Currency risk - due to the possibility of losses when foreign currency exchange rates change.
• 6. Credit risk - the risk that the borrower will be unable to fulfill its obligations.
• 7. Inflation risk - the risk that income received as a result of high inflation depreciates faster than it grows (in terms of purchasing power), etc.

For enterprises engaged in production activities, the following types of risks can be distinguished:

• risk of non-receipt/shortfall of raw materials;
• risk of production stoppage;
• the risk of non-sale (lack of demand) of manufactured products;
• the risk of non-implementation of production plans or innovative projects;
• the risk of non-receipt/late receipt of payment for products sold;
• the risk of the buyer returning products, etc.

Depending on the purpose and scope of activity, the enterprise (organization) independently determines the principles of classification, the main types of risks, taking into account the specifics of its functioning, industry, and region.

Classification of risks, determination of their types is the basis for conducting a qualitative risk analysis of the activities of an enterprise (organization) and should be focused on identifying the factors and causes of their occurrence.

Before we begin to analyze the topic, we note that risks are primarily associated with any production activity. Manufactured goods, all kinds of services and much more depend on the raw material base and cost.

Even the amount of working time spent on professional activity, are classified as production risks.

What are production risks

Production risk is force majeure circumstances that arise during the production process, laboratory research, development, implementation of services and in the process of servicing and transporting something.

Production risks are divided into the following categories:

1. Technical risk. Implies erroneous investments, miscalculations.
2. Production risk.
3. Transport risk.

Production risk is classified into several types:

1. Supply risk.
2. Strategic risk.
3. Risk associated with violation of plans or deadlines.

Supply risk implies:

1. The absence of a specific type of resource or supplier of a given resource, without which there is no possibility of production.
2. Lack of suitable market price for consumables or raw materials.
3. Unexpected refusal of suppliers to cooperate.
4. There is a direct need to conclude contracts on terms that are less beneficial to the enterprise.
5. The period for the entire procurement cycle has been increased.
6. Failure to meet planned deadlines for expenses and income.

The most common reasons for the occurrence of production risks in an enterprise:

1. reduction in planned production volumes and sales of the enterprise's products. Volumes decline due to labor productivity, equipment malfunction, lost labor hours, shortages of supplies, or increased scrap;
2. a fall in the market price of a product. A sharp change in price is implied when a different market price was calculated in plans for future sales. This also takes into account the fall in demand for goods, services or work performed;
3. consumption components for raw materials, fuel, and electricity have been increased. This also takes into account transportation costs, trade costs and other unforeseen expenses;
4. wage fund. We're talking about ;
5. tax payments and other contributions to government agencies;
6. irregular deliveries, interruptions in fuel delivery or periodic power outages;
7. The company's equipment is out of order.

Examples of production risks

Using the example of industrial production, it is worth examining several risks that are actually possible under a combination of circumstances. But the most unforeseen and dangerous production risks arise when:

1. Natural disasters. This includes earthquakes, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes. Even during a thunderstorm, a lightning strike on the premises of an enterprise is considered an occupational hazard.
2. Technogenic situations. Emergency condition of premises, wear and tear of industrial equipment, actions of intruders, negligent mistakes of working personnel, equipment breakdown during repair or construction.
3. Mixed circumstances. Disturbance of natural balance due to industrial activity. For example, landslides in the area due to construction work or an explosion.

Example 1. Risk of product refusal or return

Reason for risk: the declared quality does not correspond to the actual one, due to low quality the product cannot be used, the consumer or reseller has switched to another product or a competing supplier.

Factors: unstable internal economic situation in the country, an oversupply of goods for a limited number of consumers, individual responsibility of the management team for deliberately underestimating the quality of products.

Example 2. Risk of not selling the produced batch of products

Reason for risk: a sharp reduction in consumer needs for a specific type of product, replacement of competitors' goods from other enterprises, products not being relevant (obsolescence), a sharp decrease in demand due to household incomes or budget changes, the management of the enterprise received specific data on the sales market over time.

Factors: This risk is greatly affected by the development of technical progress and technology renewal, stagnation and recession of the market sector, bribery, and changing conditions for the import of imported goods. Better marketing activities among competing firms.

Production risk management

Enterprise risk management is possible in a systematic format. From the very beginning it is necessary analyze risks, this will provide information about the structures and properties of an object that may be at risk in the future.

If the analysis and assessment of all risks regarding the production process or product have identified the exact number of risks and their characteristics, then the damage is then calculated.

All production operations associated with risks have an end result:

1. Negative (loss or damage).
2. Zero (no change).
3. Positive (profit or gain).

To properly manage risks at an enterprise, it is necessary to obtain accurate information about the object that is at risk. To assess risk and make any decisions, information about the objects or object should be collected.

Simply put, you need to identify the risk in two stages:

1. Creation of an information base about the risk object.
2. Predicting or identifying potential hazards and subsequent incidents.

In a specific case, risk means an event that causes damage in the future.

About sources of information

Divided into two types.

Interior:

1. Information related to the production process.
2. Accounting. Reporting and accounting.
3. Materials on revision and audit.
4. Marketing research.
5. Management experience.
6. Previous risk factors.

External:

1. Statistics.
2. Information on analytical forecasts.
3. Economic, political and demographic factors.
4. Data on competition, potential and actual partners, suppliers, potential consumers in official statistics.

Risk Reduction Methods

As mentioned earlier, any enterprise must take into account the potential danger to workers, and management also needs to assess and reduce the level of risk.

It is possible to reduce the level of risk at an enterprise:

• eliminating the threat or risk completely;
• replacing it with a less dangerous one;
• engineering controls;
• administrative controls, warning signs or audible alarms;
• personal protective equipment for workers.

Risks should be reduced by eliminating the threat, and, as a last resort, taking care of individual protection. Special clothing is necessary where it is impossible to perform actions harmful to health using robotic technology.

Note: for a visual representation, it is better to describe the simplest risks in a production enterprise. This will help reduce the risk or develop your own methodology.

Potential Hazards:

1. Poor fencing or no fencing. This means blocking workers from potential contact with an element of risk (high temperatures, voltage, and much more).
2. Undeveloped safety devices.
3. Slow speed of protection mechanisms.
4. Emergency buttons are incorrectly colored or in an awkward location.
5. Weak light.
6. The internal temperature regime (microclimate) of the room does not correspond to the norm.
7. Concentration of dust and chemical components in the air.
8. Dangerous equipment is installed near work areas.
9. Personal protection is not up to par.

To guide manufacturing enterprise does not risk the overall process, the work of the organization, the life and health of the working class, it is necessary to know and think about all production risks in a timely manner.

Organization of risk management

The video below explains the SAP GRC risk management software.

In any field of activity, risk is understood as an economic category, which reflects possibility of an unfavorable situation or an unsuccessful outcome of activities (production and economic, financial, innovative).

Achieving the greatest efficiency in organizing and implementing acts of purchase and sale, a commercial entrepreneur is constantly faced with the possibility of not only not receiving the expected profit, but also losing what he already has. This can be caused by various reasons: unfavorable natural conditions, the activities of competitors, inept actions of the entrepreneur himself, etc.

Consequently, there is a need to assess the risk, try to anticipate it and minimize possible negative consequences. If actions involving risk turn out to be inevitable, then you need to learn to take reasonable risks.

Podriskom V in a general sense This word refers to the possible danger of losses arising from the specifics of certain natural phenomena and incorrect human actions.

Under the term "commercial risk" refers to the risk associated with the enterprise and its final financial result. In other words, commercial risk is the threat that an entrepreneur will suffer possible damage or losses (losses) in the form of additional expenses or receive income lower than what he expected.

Factors influencing the level of risks

To maintain sustainable operation, an entrepreneur needs to identify and analyze factors that influence the level of risks. Since risk has a subjective basis as a result of decision-making by the businessman himself and an objective basis due to the influence of the external environment, the successes and failures of commercial activities should be considered taking into account their classification into internal and external.

External factors

External factors are understood as those conditions that a merchant cannot change, but must take into account, since they affect the state of his affairs.

External factors influencing the level of commercial risk are divided into:

• direct impact factors that directly affect business results. These include:
  • laws governing business activities;
  • unforeseen actions of government services and institutions;
  • tax system;
  • relationships with partners;
  • actions of competitors;
  • corruption and racketeering;
• indirect impact factors(they cannot have a direct effect, but contribute to its change):
  • political conditions;
  • economic situation in the country;
  • economic situation in the market;
  • international events;
  • force majeure circumstances.

Internal factors

Internal factors include:

• organization strategy (erroneous choice of the trading enterprise’s own goals, erroneous forecast of the development of the external environment, incorrect assessment of the trading enterprise’s potential);
• management of a trading enterprise and making management decisions (low quality of management of labor, material, financial resources due to inconsistency in the actions of employees, lack of experience, financial miscalculations, poor work organization, etc.);
• organization of purchase and sale processes (compliance with contractual discipline, rational selection of suppliers, application of rational product distribution, selection of an effective service policy);
• availability of financial resources (difficulties in obtaining loans, high interest rates, creation of necessary reserves of material resources);
• loss of goods due to the negligence of trade workers;
• the likelihood of employees being dishonest, which could cause material damage trading company;
• low qualifications of commercial workers, whose activities may result in a risky transaction;
• suspension of business activity of a trading enterprise.

In addition, internal factors also include: protection of trade secrets; the competence of participants in commercial activities in the field of economics, management, marketing, advertising and commerce, their personal qualities; carrying out marketing research on the state of the market, competitive environment, composition of suppliers and consumers; strict compliance with legislation in the field of commercial activities; assortment and quality of goods sold; enterprise personnel; equipment used; the amount of expenses of the enterprise; desired rate of profit, etc.

According to the degree of influence on the amount of risk distinguish:

• main factors, under the influence of which the degree of risk changes significantly;
• not the main (auxiliary) factors, which have little effect on risk. This division is quite arbitrary and depends on the type of risk. For example, when considering the risk of accidental loss of property, the main factors will be the storage conditions of goods, compliance with fire safety rules, and the presence and quality of a security alarm. At the same time, all these factors will not be significant when analyzing inflation or currency risk.

Types of risk factors by degree of controllability

Separation of risk factors is important by degree of controllability:

• managed;
• difficult to regulate;
• uncontrollable.

Managed are factors that depend on the quality of the enterprise: the quality of management work at the enterprise; level of labor organization; efficient use of resources.

Difficult to regulate are factors that depend on the background of the enterprise and in the period under study are difficult or partially amenable to influence: the premises in which the enterprise is located, the qualifications and number of personnel, relationships in the team.

Uncontrollable factors are factors that cannot be changed, but can only be taken into account. These are climatic and political conditions, exchange rates, etc.

A significant factor influencing risk is personality traits of a businessman. This is due to the fact that the risk situation is associated with the presence of alternatives, the need to choose one specific behavior option from many possible ones. The choice of option largely depends on the businessman, his ability to correctly assess the situation, the degree of risk, his courage and ability to make the necessary decision in a timely manner.

Commercial risk arises due to uncertainty the impact of all environmental factors on commercial activities.

The presence of commercial risk is the flip side of economic freedom, a kind of payment for it. Freedom is granted to all entrepreneurs, the freedom of one businessman-entrepreneur is simultaneously accompanied by the freedom of other sellers and consumers, therefore, with the development market relations uncertainty and commercial risk increase.

Risk assessment

The literature often does not distinguish between the concepts of “risk” and “uncertainty”. But still, they differ, since risk characterizes a situation where the occurrence of unknown events is very likely and can be assessed quantitatively. Uncertainty is a broader and more capacious concept, since it is caused by all factors that influence the final result of commercial activity; it is characterized by the fact that the probability of the occurrence of unknown events cannot be assessed in advance.

Uncertainty is almost impossible to measure, while commercial risk is measured quantitatively by taking into account losses and failure to obtain the planned final result of commercial activity.

In commercial activities, losses from risk can be different:

• material (buildings, structures, raw materials, supplies);
• labor (loss of working time, departure of qualified workers);
• financial (unforeseen fines);
• loss of time;
• special types of losses (damage to human health, environment etc.).

You can determine the degree of risk using:

• statistical method (based on the techniques of mathematical statistics using indicators of financial and economic activity);
• expert method (they take into account the influence of various risk factors and determine the probability of occurrence of various losses).

Types of risks in commercial activities

In the course of his activities, a merchant may encounter various types risks. For ease of analysis, risks are usually classified.

Risks are identified:

• inevitable, which can be taken into account in advance and transferred to insurance companies by concluding insurance contracts with them (risks from accidents, theft, transportation of goods, risks from natural disasters, from violations of partners’ obligations - “guarantee bonds”, risks of losses from dishonesty and negligence of employees - “ integrity bonds”, risks of losses from employee illness);
• risks, associated with inevitable uncertainty(risk of losses from unpredictable changes in demand, changes in the market for stocks and securities, changes in fashion, achievements of scientific and technological progress, etc.).

The basic principles for classifying possible risks are the factor and source of their occurrence, as well as the possible result.

By factor of occurrence risks are divided into three large groups:

• natural-climatic are associated with the manifestation of natural forces, such as earthquakes, floods, storms, epidemics, etc.;
• political - related to the political situation in the country and the activities of the state;
• economic.

Economic risks associated with the activities of a separate enterprise. These include:

• risk of accidental loss of property associated with the possible loss of enterprise property (buildings, structures, equipment, inventories of goods, etc.) as a result of an accident, fire, theft, non-compliance with storage conditions, sabotage. As a rule, the listed reasons lead to significant losses, which indicates the high importance of this type in the general list of possible economic risks;
• risk failure to fulfill contractual obligations determined by the dishonesty of commercial partners, their failure to comply with their obligations, or their insolvency. In modern conditions, almost every commercial enterprise is faced with this type of risk;
• economic risk arises as a result of disruption of the economic activity of the enterprise and failure to achieve planned economic indicators (for example, the volume of sales of goods or profit). It may be associated with changes in the market situation, as well as with economic miscalculations of the managers of the enterprise itself. This type of risk is the most common in the activities of an enterprise;
• price risk - This is one of the most dangerous types of risk, as it directly and significantly affects the possibility of loss of income and business enterprise. It manifests itself in an increase in the level of selling prices of goods manufacturers, wholesale prices of intermediary organizations, an increase in prices and tariffs for services of other organizations (for example, energy, transport tariffs, rent, etc.), an increase in the cost of equipment. Price risk constantly accompanies the economic activities of an enterprise;
• marketing risk represents the risk of choosing the wrong market behavior strategy. This may be an incorrect orientation towards the consumer of goods, errors in choosing the assortment, incorrect assessment of competitors, etc.;
• currency risk inherent in commercial operations in the field of foreign economic activity. It represents the danger of foreign exchange losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of one currency against another. By importing goods, the enterprise loses when the exchange rate of the corresponding foreign currency increases in relation to the national one. On the contrary, a decrease in this exchange rate leads to losses in the export of goods;
• inflation risk - This is the risk that cash income received when inflation rises will depreciate faster than grow. At the same time, the real value of the enterprise’s capital will also depreciate;
• investment risk characterizes the possibility of unforeseen financial losses in the process of investment activity of an enterprise (i.e., investing capital in the creation of other enterprises, expansion or re-equipment of one’s own enterprise, or in the purchase of securities);
• insolvency risk represents a situation where a company will be unable to pay its obligations. The reason for its occurrence may be improper planning of the timing and amount of receipt and expenditure of funds. Due to its financial consequences, this risk can lead to the initiation of bankruptcy proceedings, therefore it is also considered the most dangerous;
• transport risk - This is the risk of loss or damage to goods during transport.

In addition to those listed, there are other types of economic risks, but their consequences are not so dangerous for the activities of the enterprise.

These include:

• the risk of loss of goods in stores due to theft from customers;
• loss of goods as a result of violation of storage terms and conditions;
• financial losses due to untimely execution of settlement transactions due to an unsuccessful choice of a commercial bank;
• falsification of financial documents by employees, etc.

By duration of exposure risks are divided into:

• temporary - those that threaten participants in commercial activities over a certain period of time (transport risk);
• permanent - those that continuously threaten commercial activity in a given geographic region (Northern Delivery areas).

Types of risks by nature (sources) of occurrence:

• economic risk is a risk directly related to economic activities of a trading enterprise;
• risk associated with the personality of a merchant(his competence, experience, culture, moral qualities);
• risk associated with lack of information about the external environment - the most important, since the inaccessibility of information about partners, suppliers, financial condition, about the state of the market, about competitors can become a source of losses for participants in commercial activities.

Types of risks by area of ​​occurrence:

• internal - the source is the trading enterprise itself (its management, incompetence);
• external - the source is external environment, which commercial participants cannot influence, but can anticipate and take into account in their work.

Types of risks subject to insurance:

Insured - a probable event or set of events against which insurance is provided (risk of loss of property, consequences of fire, accidents, accidents with employees).

Insured risks may be associated with:

• manifestation of natural forces (floods, earthquakes, weather conditions);
• purposeful human actions in (man-made risks);

Not insured - These are those that insurance companies do not undertake to insure due to the high probability of their own losses. Therefore, commercial participants often create a special insurance fund. In the absence of risk, this fund becomes a source of profit for the trading enterprise.

By scale:

• local— arises at the level of a trading enterprise;
• global - this is a reflection of the economic situation in the country and in individual regions.

According to expected results:

• pure (simple) - mean the possibility of obtaining only a negative or zero result (natural-climatic, political and some economic risks). Pure risks by type of loss are: personal, property, associated with liability (when the actions of one trade organization cause damage to another entity);
• dynamic (speculative) - mean the possibility of obtaining both positive and negative results (most business risks). For example, if the price rises more slowly than , this may even lead to an increase in real income.

According to the degree of admissibility:

• acceptable - the threat of a limited loss of profit from the commercial activities of the trading enterprise as a whole, i.e. losses are possible, but they are less than the expected profit;
• critical - characterized by loss of profit and shortfall in expected revenue. Such a risk has the danger of losses that exceed the expected profit;
• catastrophic - leads to a trading enterprise, i.e. to the loss of all funds.

By degree of validity(most important sign):

• legitimate - the risk arising from legal actions that comply with regulations and guidance documents. Such a risk is always justified and such actions are not related to what the result turned out to be, even if it is negative. The decision to take risks in certain cases does not carry any guilt, since the businessman making the decision allows for unfavorable consequences from a possible decision, but his actions are lawful. The risk is considered legitimate if the following conditions are simultaneously met:
  • the risk must correspond to the value of the purpose for which it is undertaken;
  • this goal cannot be achieved by ordinary, non-risky means;
  • the risk should not turn into deliberate damage;
  • the object of risk should be material, material factors, and not human life and health. Violation of at least one of these conditions excludes the legitimacy of the risk;
• illegal.

There are main types of risk.

Rice. 6.2. Types of risks

Risk management in business activities

As already noted, risk in business is inevitable. Consequently, the enterprise must develop a specific risk policy in order to neutralize risks and reduce their consequences. Methods of reduction and direction are very diverse, since they depend on the profile of activity, external and internal factors and the personal qualities of those who make the decision.

Risk aversion

The simplest and most acceptable direction of risk neutralization is that in the process of conducting business activities one can refuse to carry out financial transactions related to high risk, i.e. avoid risk. In such cases, the results that could be achieved are not always obtained, but this allows you to completely avoid potential losses. But, unfortunately, this is not always possible.

Decisions to avoid certain risks can be made both at the preliminary stage of decision-making and in the future. But most often this happens at the preliminary stage, since refusal to continue commercial activities can lead to large financial and other losses. Therefore, risk aversion is used under the following conditions:

• if avoidance of one type of risk does not entail the emergence of other types of risks;
• if the level of risk is much higher than the level of possible income of a commercial transaction;
• if the trading enterprise is unable to compensate for financial losses due to this type of risk from its own financial resources due to its large size.

However, not all types of commercial risks can be avoided by a trading enterprise; for the most part, it consciously takes risks and engages in . Some types of risks are accepted as inevitable, other risks are accepted because they carry the possibility of profit.

Methods for reducing commercial risk

The main directions of the risk policy are:

• risk avoidance policy;
• risk acceptance policy;
• risk reduction policy.

Risk Avoidance Policy consists in developing such measures that make it possible to completely eliminate a specific type of economic risk. This is mainly achieved by refusing to carry out such business transactions, the level of risk of which is excessively high. This policy is the simplest, but not always effective, since by avoiding risks, the enterprise simultaneously loses the opportunity to obtain a fairly high profit.

Risk Policy means the desire and ability to cover the risk using one’s own funds. Such a policy is appropriate if the financial condition of the enterprise is stable and there is a desire to expand its activities, but it can lead to large unjustified losses.

Risk Mitigation Policy involves reducing the likelihood and volume of losses. There are methods and techniques that can be used to reduce the risk of business activities. The most widely used and effective risk prevention and reduction methods are:

• (internal and external);
• diversification;
• limiting.

Insurance

The most dangerous commercial risks in terms of their consequences must be neutralized by insurance. Currently, the insurance market has about 3,000 insurance companies.

By resorting to insurance, commercial organization must clearly define the types of risks for which it is necessary to provide insurance protection. When choosing an insurance company, you should take into account certain criteria, namely the presence of a license, the size of the authorized capital and equity, the size of tariffs used by the insurance company, the financial stability of the insurance company, etc.

The relationship between a trade enterprise and an insurance company is based on an insurance contract - an agreement between the policyholder and the insurer regulating their mutual rights and obligations under the terms of insurance of certain commercial risks.

External insurance consists of transferring risk (responsibility for the results of negative consequences) for a certain reward to another organization (insurance company). According to Russian legislation, the following events can be insured:

• reduction in the volume of trade turnover as a result of events specified in the contract;
• recognition of bankruptcy of a commercial enterprise;
• unforeseen expenses;
• non-fulfillment (improper fulfillment) of contractual obligations by the counterparty of the insured person, who is the creditor of the transaction;
• legal expenses incurred by the insured entity;
• other events.

This may be insurance of company property, cargo during transportation, employees against accidents and other types of insurance.

Domestic insurance carried out within the enterprise itself. It is carried out by creating special funds for compensation of losses. The list of such funds and the amount of contributions to them are determined by the charter of the enterprise. Their source is profit. Insurance covers only part of the property of a commercial enterprise. Such insurance is more profitable for a trade enterprise than hiring an insurance company for this purpose.

Diversification

One of the methods to reduce commercial risks is diversification.

Diversification(Latin - change, variety, “diversis” - different, “fazio” - doing; expanding the range of goods, areas of activity) is the process of distributing funds between various objects that are not directly related to each other. This allows you to reduce risk, since it is difficult to assume that a risk situation will arise simultaneously at all facilities.

There are several forms of diversification:

• Species diversification involves using different opportunities to generate income and profit, i.e. investment simultaneously in several different enterprises, creation of branches in various regions, etc.
• Supplier diversification involves abundance of sources of income goods.
• Diversification of the assortment involves inclusion in the assortment of the enterprise goods with opposite direction of demand(for example, soft drinks and hot tea in a cafe). This allows you to reduce economic risk during a period of temporary decrease in demand for certain goods.
• Diversification of goods buyers allows expanding market boundaries to other territories and segments market and increase trade turnover.
• Diversification of the so-called deposit portfolio involves placing temporarily free funds in various banks, which reduces the risk of their loss in the event of bank bankruptcy.

Limitation

Limitation involves establishing a system of restrictions on the value. This may be a restriction on the maximum volume of a transaction with one partner, the maximum size of inventory, the maximum size of a loan provided to one buyer, the maximum size of a deposit in one bank, etc.

Any risk reduction comes at a cost. This is the so-called risk reduction fee. With external insurance, the payment for risk reduction will be the amount of insurance premiums; for domestic insurance, these are the costs of creating reserve funds. Diversification typically results in lower returns from each source of income. A similar phenomenon is observed during limiting. Therefore, when choosing a method to reduce risk, it is necessary to take into account its cost and feasibility.